We calculate September US wheat stocks at 1.744 billion bushels would be the least since September data was available in the early 1970’s. Our estimate assumes the August US wheat production estimate which could be revised in the Small Grains Summary published in late September. As we discussed in an Read more…
There appears a significant chance the old crop US corn carryout (September 1 stocks) will fall short of USDA’s August 2023 estimate. USDA assumed 4th quarter (June/August) feed usage at 596 million bushels which would be the least since 2016. We have assumed feed usage at least 100 million bushels Read more…
We estimate the September 1 US hog inventory at 72.8 million head, down 2% from the census at the same time last year. Our estimate assumes the USDA’s summer sows farrowing projection published in June 2023 and a trend projection for the number of pigs saved per litter. Read more…
Slack export demand has weighed on US wheat futures prices this summer. In the period 6/1/2023 through 8/10/2023 US wheat export sales totaled just 7 million tonnes compared to the average 10 million tonnes in the same period in the previous ten years. However, USDA data suggest the US wheat Read more…
USDA has projected the average price for steers, finished and basis Nebraska, at $186 per hundredweight in 2024 compared to the previous record $155 established in 2014. Another sharp reduction in US beef supply in 2024 forms the base for the USDA’s live steer price forecast. US beef supply is Read more…
The USDA’s first crop survey of the season resulted in a 2+ bushel reduction in the National corn average yield. In the 1965-2022 period the August yield estimate had a 96% correlation with the final (January) estimate with a standard error of six bushels per harvested acre. USDA reduced the Read more…
USDA dropped the US soybean national average yield to 50 bushels per harvested acre compared the trendline July forecast of 52 bushels. The yield downgrade was in line with sub average weekly USDA crop reports. In the years 1965 through 2022 the August yield estimate has had a 94% correlation Read more…
Pasture & range conditions have improved significantly over a year ago, but are only average compared ratings in the last 10 years. At any rate ranchers will not be forced to move calves or yearlings into feedlots this Autumn for lack of pasture. Improved pastures support feeder cattle prices and Read more…
USDA crop observers rated 52% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition on July 30, 2023 which is down from the 52% with the same rating a week earlier. Historical data suggests an August estimate for the US national average soybean yield of 49 bushels/harvested acre compared Read more…
USDA reported 55% of the corn crop was in good or excellent condition as of the end of July. Based on historical data the USDA’s weekly report suggests an August US average corn yield of 178 bushels per harvested acre compared to USDA’s July trendline forecast of 182 bushels. We Read more…
US wheat export sales have lagged so far this season as domestic users have outbid exporters for limited US wheat supplies. Foreign wheat consumers have preferred to source wheat from other countries such Canada, Argentina and Australia. Ukraine wheat supplies available for export are uncertain as Russia may blockade Ukrainian Read more…
Feeder cattle futures prices appeared to, at least temporarily, have stalled after a major winter – spring bull market. The accompanying scatter studies display autumn feeder cattle values (high & low range) as a function of the supply of feeder cattle on July 1. USDA data put the mid-year 2023 Read more…
USDA reported 57% of the corn crop in good or excellent condition on 7/23/2034 compared to the 37-year average 63% in the same week. History suggests a US national average yield of 176 bushels per harvested acre compared to the USDA July trendline yield forecast of 177.5 bushels per acre. Read more…
Cash hogs have displayed a strong negative price seasonal from summer into autumn over the last 50 years. Increased slaughter hog supplies in the autumn has driven the negative price seasonal. Currently December lean hogs are trading $24 discount to the August hog contract. The discount reflects aggregate trader’s expectation Read more…
USDA reported cattle on feed July 1 totaled 11.5 million head compared to 11.7 million head a year ago. Feeder cattle placements over the last six months suggests finished cattle marketings in the July 2023 through December 2023 period will fall short at least 3% of finished cattle sales from Read more…
USDA reported the July 1, 2023 US cattle inventory at 95.8 million head, down 3% from a year ago and the second fewest in the last 50 years. The ratio of July/December US beef production to inventory is displayed in the accompanying chart with 2023 based USDA projected data. Note Read more…
December soybean meal could have significant upside potential based USDA’s current USDA new crop soybean supply/usage balance and July livestock projections The harvest price forecasts for December soybean meal, based on the US soybean carryout to usage ratio and the livestock price index (LPI). The US soybean S/D & livestock Read more…
USDA cut the 2023/2024 US soybean carryout projection by 50 million bushels this month because of a smaller planted acre estimate published in June Acreage Survey report. USDA stayed with a national average soybean yield of 52 bushels per harvested acre. As we indicated in a previous post, the Read more…
USDA soybean crop condition: The USDA rated 55% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition on July 16, 2023. This is a significant improvement over the previous week’s crop reports, which showed 51% of the crop in good or excellent condition. The improvement in crop condition is Read more…
Last month the USDA forecast a record US soybean national average soybean yield of 52 bushels per harvested acre. However, in the week ending 7/2/2023, the USDA rated just 51% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition. This is significantly below the 35-year average of 66% for Read more…