USDA expects US pork production to increase 3% in 2024 and 1% in 2025. US pork imports are expected to increase 5% in 2024 and decline 1% in 2025. US pork exports, which have been much larger than imports in recent years, are expected to increase 8% this year and Read more…
USDA expects US beef production to drop 2% year over year in 2025 after a similar reduction in 2024. US per capita beef supply in 2025 could decline 4% compared to 2024 which USDA has forecast down 1% from 2023 US beef supply. US Beef Supply/Usage (Million Pounds) Annual Read more…
USDA rated 56% of the US winter wheat in good or excellent on 3/31/24 compared with the previous 35-year average of 49%. The rating would suggest the 2024 US winter wheat yield could be near the trend established in the period from 1988 through 2023. Winter wheat yield lagged trend Read more…
USDA’ March Planting Intentions survey found US wheat farmers planning to reduce planted area this year. The reduction was confined to winter wheat which was seeded last autumn. Spring wheat area may expand modestly, but not enough to make up for the winter wheat decline. We have calculated a US Read more…
USDA’s March Hog census found the US hog herd was just 1% larger than a year ago on 1 March 2024 and just under the record large March count established in 2020. March market hog numbers were also up 1% from the same time in 2023 while hogs retained for Read more…
USDA’s March Planting Intentions Survey found US farmers planning to plant 87 million acres to soybeans this spring, a 3 million acre increase from planted area a year ago. Soybeans appear set to take available US farmland primarily at the expense of corn cultivation. US soybean area forecast from the Read more…
US farmers plan to reduce corn planted area in 2024 to 90 million acres from the 94 million acres planted a year ago. The accompanying US corn supply/usage table is based on USDA’s baseline forecasts, published last month, with the March planting survey acreage substituted (91 million acres in the Read more…
Feedlots increased both feeder placements and finished cattle sales in February 2024. Cattle on feed March 1 was up 1% from a year ago. Based on feeder placemats over the last six months cattle marketed in the next six months will likely decline 3% year over year. Cattle weights at Read more…
July 2024 soybean meal is trading more than $100 under July 2023 Soybean meal at the same time last year. The prospect of a record large South American soybean crop (the bulk of which is harvested from February through April) has weighed on US old crop soybeans and soybean meal Read more…
US feeder cattle supplies appear to be the tightest this century. In The accompanying scatter studies we have set deliverable feeder cattle price as a function of the April feeder cattle supply as calculated by USDA. The points for 2024 are based on data available in Mid March 2024 and Read more…
We estimate the US hog herd on March 1, 2024 at 75 million head, up 2% year over year and just under the spring record recorded in March 2020. The number of hogs kept for herd maintenance on March 1 2024 was down 3% from a year ago as Read more…
Ethanol producers have enjoyed favorable margins this season despite weaker ethanol prices. Cheaper corn has been the key to improved ethanol production profitability Because of the highly subsidized state of ethanol production the quantity of corn used by ethanol plants is relatively inelastic with respect to raw margins. Last month Read more…
This month the USDA forecast US beef production at 26 billion pounds, down 3 percent on a year over year basis. The negative production estimate reflects a 2% reduction in the US cattle inventory on January 1, 2024. The 2024 January cattle census was the smallest in more than 50 Read more…
USDA has been steadily increasing the pork production projection for the first half of 2024, USDA has kept the second half of 2024 US pork production projection at a steady +3 to 4% year over year increase. We have fitted a model using the late winter through summer price range Read more…
The soybean/corn price ratio prevailing since harvest suggests a significant decline in corn planted area this spring. In the October 2023/January 2024 period soybeans averaged 273% of the price of corn (farm level) compared to 215 % during the same period a year earlier. The economic disadvantage results in a Read more…
The first half 2024 supply of feeder cattle will be the tightest this century based on a calculation made from data in the recently released Cattle Inventory report. We calculate there were 10,9 million head of cattle over 500 pounds but not in feedlots or reserved for herd expansion on Read more…
Midwest farmer simulated budgets suggest soybeans hold an economic advantage over corn at midwinter prices although a soybean enterprise is only modestly more profitable per acre than corn. Utilizing data from the last thirty years, the current corn/soybean price ratio results in the forecast for US soybean planted area of Read more…
USDA boosted the 2024 projection for Argentine soybean production to 50 million metric tons, up two million tonnes from the December forecast and double the very small 2023 soybean crop of just 25 million tonnes. Argentina has an outsized impact on the world soybean meal market because domestic consumption is Read more…
Midwest soybean processing margins have declined since the end of harvest, a normal seasonal phenomena. Mid January margins are also under those of the preceding two years, leaving less cushion for soybean prices going into the peak of the South American soybean harvest in February through April. Midwest Soybean Processing Read more…
Corn ethanol processing margins have improved since completion of harvest. A partial recovery in ethanol prices has exceeded declining values of by-products like corn gluten meal. Feed stock (corn) prices have also declined and are the dominant variable force in determining corn ethanol processing profitability. Ethanol demand is highly subsidized Read more…