USDA has forecast another increase in US wheat carryout stocks in the 2024/25 crop year. Increased production and just a modest increase in US wheat exports are key variables in the new crop US wheat supply/usage balance. US Wheat Supply/Usage (Million Bu./ Acres) Crop Years 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/2024 2024/2025 Read more
USDA expects pork production to increase over the next eighteen months. US Pork exports are also expected to expand, to the best level since China imported US pork in 2021 and 2022. USDA’s pork supply/demand balance sheet would project domestic per capita pork supply up significantly in 2024 but off Read more
USDA made only modest changes in the US soybean supply/usage forecasts this month’s WASDE report. The old crop US soybean crush estimate was reduced by 10 million bushels which carried through to a 10 million bushel increase in old crop and new crop carryout stocks. USDA expects an increase Read more
The June 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report brought some surprising news for the beef industry. Let’s break down the key points regarding beef supply, demand, and prices: Supply: The USDA US beef production for 2024 estimate remained virtually unchanged from the previous report. However, there were Read more
The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the USDA, released in June 2024, paints a generally positive picture for the U.S. corn industry. Here are some key takeaways: Production: The USDA maintained its forecast for “new crop” corn production at 14.86 billion bushels, with a yield Read more
Export demand for corn and sorghum has been a major force supporting a modest rally in old crop corn futures prices since the late winter. China has been a major swing factor increasing US sorghum purchases at the expense of US corn. Combined US corn and sorghum old crop export Read more
The US hog herd appears to have increased modestly over the past year. We estimate the inventory on June 1, 2024 at 74.2 million head, one percent larger than on the same date in 2023. Calculating the June hog herd estimate is dependent on the size of the March/May pig Read more
The winter wheat crop condition index has slipped slightly since the May 2024 US winter wheat production estimate was published by USDA, but at 48% good or excellent, remains well ahead of the indices at the time in 2022 and 2023. Our winter wheat crop condition – yield model projects Read more
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its latest Cattle on Feed report on May 24, 2024, offering insights into trends in cattle feeding and marketing. Here’s a quick look at some key takeaways: Inventory down from last year: On May 1, 2024, there were 11.6 million head of Read more
The USDA’s WASDE report provides a slightly bearish outlook for U.S. wheat in the 2024/25 marketing year. Here are the key takeaways: Larger Supplies: Overall wheat supplies are projected to be up 6% from 2023/24 due to larger beginning stocks and increased production. Production Increase: All wheat production is forecast Read more
The USDA’s May 10th report projected an increase in soybean supplies and ending stocks for the 2024/25 marketing year. This is due to both higher expected production and larger beginning stocks. Despite a projected rise in domestic soybean crushing, stockpiles are still expected to climb to 445 million bushels, pushing Read more
USDA has projected the US corn crop harvested this autumn at 14.87 billion bushels compared to forecasted 2024/25 crop year usage of 14.80 billion bushels. Except for planted US corn acreage, which is based on the March Prospective Planting report, USDA’s projected US corn supply/usage balance 2024/25 table is based on Read more
USDA has estimated a 3% increase in US pork production in 2024 an additional 1% increase in 2025. US pork exports are expected to increase sharply in both 2024 and 2025 leaving domestic per capita pork supplies up just 1% this year and down 1% in 2025 . US Pork Read more
USDA has forecast a 1% drop in US beef production in 2024 and an additional 3% decline in 2025. The need to restock the beef herd by holding back heifers for herd replacement accounts for the expected decline in beef production. We have constructed a US beef supply/usage balance based Read more
Calculated US corn stocks on June 1, 2024 are estimated by Us at 4.8 billion bushels compared to 4.1 billion bushels one year earlier. The ratio of June 1 corn stocks to September 2024 through May 2024 usage is 41% which would be the largest ratio since the 2019/2020 crop Read more
The USDA has scheduled the first winter wheat production estimate for the 2024 season for May 10, 2024. This week USDA rated the 2024 winter crop at 49% good or excellent compared to ratings in the mid 20 percent range in 2022 and 2023. A model based on the correlation Read more
December soybean meal is trading on the low side of livestock prices based on the last 50 years of historical data. We have charted the June/August price range for December soybean meal divided by the livestock price index published by the USDA. The point for 2024 is calculated using the Read more
USDA has scheduled the first WASDE report of the season that will include a prospective US corn supply/usage balance for the 2024/2025 crop year. The only survey backed data in the May report is the planted area estimate taken from the March Prospective Planting Report. The remainder of the 2024/25 Read more
USDA reported a sharp drop in cattle feedlot activity in March 2024. Net feeder cattle placements declined 13% on a year over year basis. March finished cattle marketing declined 14%. The inventory of cattle on feed April 1, 2024 was 1% larger than a year ago. Feedlot operators are feeding Read more
New crop US soybean sales totaled only 17 million bushels on April 11 which is the smallest total for that date since the 2002/2003 crop year. Export traders prefer to depend on South American soybean supplies as the huge 2024 in Brazil and Argentina crop will last well into the Read more