USDA reported the number of cattle in large feedlots August 1 was nearly identical to the same population a year ago. Feedlot operators are holding cattle to heavier weights this year compared to recent historical data. Cheap feed costs and scarce feeder cattle supplies favor putting more weight on cattle Read more
The outlook for a buildup in new crop US corn stocks has pressured corn futures prices all summer. We project the harvest price range for December 2024 corn futures at $3.50 to $4.25 assuming USDA’s August 2024 US new crop corn supply/demand balance forecast. Factors to consider when forecasting a Read more
USDA projects a 5% drop in US beef production in 2025 after an estimated 1% cut in 2024. The US domestic beef supply per capita in 2025 would be the tightest since 2016 based on USDA data forecasts. December 2024 cattle futures prices have been under pressure since late winter Read more
USDA has forecast a 4% increase in US pork supply in 2024 / 2025 and a 7% increase in US pork exports in 2025. US Pork Supply (Million Pounds) 2024/2023 2025/2024 Annual 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 % Change % Change Beg Stock 467 446 504 471 460 Production 27,690 Read more
US Midwest farmers have enjoyed favorable weather this summer reflected in USDA’s projected record national average soybean yield. USDA also expects strong new crop US demand, but expected usage still well fall short of supplies leaving an expected buildup in US soybean stocks during the 2024/2025 crop year. US Soybean Read more
Cash soybean processing margins remain wider than most years prior to 2023. Cheap soybeans account for Midwest soybean processor favorable returns as meal is trading well below the two previous years and oil is little more than half the value brought in early August if the years 2021 through 2023. Read more
USDA rated 67% of the US soybean crop as in good or excellent condition on July 28, 2024 which is in the top 25% of soybean crop ratings for the same week over the past 35+ years. This week’s rating suggests a US national average soybean yield of 52.4 bushels Read more
USDA rated 67% of the US corn crop in good or excellent condition on 7/21/2024 which is in the upper 51% of ratings in the period 1985 through 2023. On the same date 61% of the corn crop had reached the Silk stage, which was ahead of the recent five Read more
USDA reported July 1, 2024 cattle on feed numbers up 1% from a year earlier, but both June placements and finished cattle sales declined sharply compared to a year ago. Forty percent of July 1 feedlot inventory were heifers which is well above the 33% in 2015 when the cattle Read more
USDA upped the assessment of US pork production over the next 18 months. US farmers increased hog production efficiency, as measured by the number of pigs saved per litter, by 3% during the first half of 2024 compared to an average 1% per annum in the preceding 5 years. US Read more
The recent “Bear Market” for new crop corn futures contracts has already discounted much of the outlook for surplus US corn supplies during the 2024/2025 crop year. The prospective US US new crop corn carryover stocks projection could increase to 2.5 billion bushels compared to USDA’s June forecast of 2.2 Read more
USDA rated 68% of the US soybean acreage in good or excellent condition as of July 7, 2024. The July 7 index was 12% better than the previous 38-year average for early July, and a yield of 52 bushels per harvested acre which is fractionally greater than the record US Read more
USDA made a minor upward adjustment to the 2024 US wheat planted area estimate as a result of the June area survey and a more meaningful increase in the 2024 harvested wheat acres forecast. Assuming USDA wheat usage and yield estimates published earlier this month, the 2024/25 crop year carryout Read more
USDA’ June acreage survey found US farmers planting 86 million acres of soybeans in 2024. The June survey is 400 thousand acres less than the March survey forecast, but still greater than the US soybean area in 2023. The modest reduction in soybean acres from March reduces the expected new Read more
USDA estimates US corn planted area in 2024 at 91.4 million acres, a significant increase from the March survey, but three million acres less than was planted last year. We have derived a revised US corn supply/usage table with the June survey acreage data and holding all other variables at Read more
USDA estimated the June 1, 2024 Hog herd at 74.5 million head, a 1% increase from a year ago. Market hogs were up 2% on a year over year basis. Earlier this month USDA estimated US pork production during the second half of 2024 would increase 5% on a year Read more
The US cattle herd likely declined to the smallest level in more than 50 years on July 1. We calculate US cattle numbers on July 1, 2024 at 93 million head, a 3% year over year decline and a 10 million head plunge in just 4 years. Cattlemen are taking Read more
USDA rated 71% of the spring wheat crop in good or excellent condition on 6/23/2024 which is in the upper 50 % of the mid June data collected since 1994 Our regression model using historical condition & yield data suggests a US spring wheat yield of nearly 50 bushels per Read more
USDA reported 69% of the US corn crop was in good or excellent condition as of 6/23/2024 which is modestly better than the 66% average for the same week since the mid 1980’s.Top Soil in the US Midwest was rated adequate or surplus in 66% of the crop area on Read more
This month the USDA forecast an increase in new crop (2024/2025) US soybean carryout stocks. For the next two months the key to possible changes in the soybean supply/usage balance is weather and the impact on yield. This month USDA assumed a national average soybean yield of 52 bushels per Read more