This month USDA forecast the April/June average Midwest finished cattle price at $186/Cwt. Recent history reveals the April live cattle contract has made a high in excess of the USDA 2nd quarter cash forecast in nine of ten years. On September 24, 2024 the April cattle contract closed at the Read more…
This month USDA forecast an average price for Midwest finished steers of $183 per hundredweight for the October/December period On September 24, 2024 December 2024 Live cattle closed at $184 or 101% of the USDA’s fourth quarter forecast of $183. Given the shortage of feeder cattle, December live cattle appear Read more…
Feeder placements and finished cattle marketings both declined last month compared to data in August 2023. The number of cattle in US feedlots on September 1, 2024 was fractionally larger than at the same time a year ago. Feedlot operators continue to cope with the shortage of feeder cattle by Read more…
Only if the 2024/25 (Northern Hemisphere spring 2025 harvest) South American soybean crop falls significantly short of the USDA’s September 2024 forecast. The accompanying scatter studies display the high/low price range for March soybean meal as a function of the new crop US soybean carryover to crop year usage ratio. Read more…
Soybean futures contracts are likely to dip to levels last seen in 2020 if US soybean carryout stocks build to the level forecast in the September 2024 WASDE report. The Bear case for soybeans is dependent on the assumption of a very large South American soybean crop, for which field Read more…
USDA made only minor changes to the US pork supply/usage balance this month, likely preferring to await the September Hogs & Pigs report (scheduled for release September 26, 2024) to make significant changes if needed. December 2024 lean hog futures have staged a significant price rally since establishing a low Read more…
In the first week of September cash cattle were trading near $183 per hundredweight and the December 2024 live cattle contract $175. The table below displays the autumn price range for both cash and futures with a seasonal forecast for 2024. The 2024 price forecast is based solely on historical Read more…
US wheat farmers enjoyed a banner year with the 2024 national average wheat yield only fractionally under the record set in 2016. The March 2025 Chicago wheat futures contract is currently trading well above the autumn/winter low established by the 2024 March Chicago wheat contract even though the 2024/2025 US Read more…
March corn appears to be trading on the high side of the expected harvest – March price range unless USDA tightens the US 2024/2025 corn supply/usage table compared to that published in August 2024. The accompanying scatter studies display the harvest/March price range for the March corn futures contract as Read more…
We calculate the September 1, 2024 US hog inventory at 75 million head, a 2% year over year reduction. Our estimate is anchored on the USDA‘s June Sows farrowing survey which found farmers intending to reduce summer farrowings 3% from a year earlier. The September 2024 Hogs and Pigs report Read more…
USDA reported the number of cattle in large feedlots August 1 was nearly identical to the same population a year ago. Feedlot operators are holding cattle to heavier weights this year compared to recent historical data. Cheap feed costs and scarce feeder cattle supplies favor putting more weight on cattle Read more…
The outlook for a buildup in new crop US corn stocks has pressured corn futures prices all summer. We project the harvest price range for December 2024 corn futures at $3.50 to $4.25 assuming USDA’s August 2024 US new crop corn supply/demand balance forecast. Factors to consider when forecasting a Read more…
USDA projects a 5% drop in US beef production in 2025 after an estimated 1% cut in 2024. The US domestic beef supply per capita in 2025 would be the tightest since 2016 based on USDA data forecasts. December 2024 cattle futures prices have been under pressure since late winter Read more…
USDA has forecast a 4% increase in US pork supply in 2024 / 2025 and a 7% increase in US pork exports in 2025. US Pork Supply (Million Pounds) 2024/2023 2025/2024 Annual 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 % Change % Change Beg Stock 467 446 504 471 460 Production 27,690 Read more…
US Midwest farmers have enjoyed favorable weather this summer reflected in USDA’s projected record national average soybean yield. USDA also expects strong new crop US demand, but expected usage still well fall short of supplies leaving an expected buildup in US soybean stocks during the 2024/2025 crop year. US Soybean Read more…
Cash soybean processing margins remain wider than most years prior to 2023. Cheap soybeans account for Midwest soybean processor favorable returns as meal is trading well below the two previous years and oil is little more than half the value brought in early August if the years 2021 through 2023. Read more…
USDA rated 67% of the US soybean crop as in good or excellent condition on July 28, 2024 which is in the top 25% of soybean crop ratings for the same week over the past 35+ years. This week’s rating suggests a US national average soybean yield of 52.4 bushels Read more…
USDA rated 67% of the US corn crop in good or excellent condition on 7/21/2024 which is in the upper 51% of ratings in the period 1985 through 2023. On the same date 61% of the corn crop had reached the Silk stage, which was ahead of the recent five Read more…
USDA reported July 1, 2024 cattle on feed numbers up 1% from a year earlier, but both June placements and finished cattle sales declined sharply compared to a year ago. Forty percent of July 1 feedlot inventory were heifers which is well above the 33% in 2015 when the cattle Read more…
USDA upped the assessment of US pork production over the next 18 months. US farmers increased hog production efficiency, as measured by the number of pigs saved per litter, by 3% during the first half of 2024 compared to an average 1% per annum in the preceding 5 years. US Read more…