Cash soybean meal has potential for a spring rally. The accompanying scatter studies display the highs and lows for cash soybean meal as a function of a model forecast. The model uses the US soybean carryout and soybean meal exports to forecast the winter spring soybean meal price range. Note Read more
The USDA’s February forecast for the Brazilian soybean crop used a yield slightly above the 25 year trend. The Argentine soybean yield for 2020 was assumed to be directly on the 25 year trend. The USDA’s February Brazilian production estimate on a first difference basis has only a 40% Read more
U.S. soybean oil sales are running well ahead of the pace needed to match the USDA’s crop year export total of 1.7 billion pounds or 771 thousand tonnes. The accompanying scatter chart displays crop year exports as a function of late January sales. Strong export sales will be a supporting Read more
The USDA has estimated the January 1 U.S. feeder supply outside feedlots at roughly 200 thousand head less than available a year ago. We have scattered the 1st quarter feeder price as a function of the January 1 feeder supply. The point marked in red is the price and supply Read more
U.S. soybean sales are close to that needed to match the USDA crop year export total of 1.775 billion bushels or 47 million tonnes. The accompanying scatter chart displays crop year exports as a function of late January sales.
The USDA made modest changes in the corn 2019/2020 supply/usage estimates this month. The feed estimate was raised to 5.5 billion bushels from 5.35 billion the previous month and 5.6 billion bushels a year ago. The U.S. hog herd was up 3% on December 1 and broiler production is running Read more
The USDA made only minor changes in the soybean complex supply/usage estimates this month. USDA elected not to change the South American soybean crop estimate leaving Brazil at 123 million tonnes and Argentine output at 53 million tonnes. USDA shuffled the estimates for the 2019 soybean crop reducing the area Read more
The accompanying economic value study estimates the winter – early spring high and low for Central Ill soybean prices. The study uses U.S. soybean carryout stocks and the quantity of U.S. soybean oil used as fuel or exported as independent variables. The resulting forecasts are very optimistic compared to USDA’ Read more
Weather in Argentina has generally favored the soybean crop this season (January in the Southern Hemisphere equates to July in the U.S.) USDA is likely to maintain the December forecast of 53 million tonnes included with the January World Supply and Usage report scheduled for January 10, 2020. In Brazil Read more
Last month the USDA forecast the first quarter domestic per capita beef supply at 19.5 pounds which is a slight increase from the previous year. The accompanying scatter study uses the per capita supply as barometer and average price of steers at Omaha as the dependent variable. In December USDA Read more
Soybean oil prices have moved sharply higher since the completion of harvest. A depletion in world and U.S. soybean oil stocks has been the dominate force behind the stronger oil market. USDA has forecast a sharp increase in Biofuel use which has strengthened soybean oil demand. Soybean meal export demand Read more
Late December U.S. soybean Meal sales for the current season totaled 5.5 million tonnes compared to 6.8 million tonnes at the same point last season. This scatter study uses late December sales as a barometer of crop year exports. The USDA’s December forecast (marked in red) is on the very Read more
Late December U.S. soybean sales for the current season totaled 29.5 million tonnes compared to 31 million tonnes at the same point last season. This scatter study uses late December sales as a barometer of crop year exports. The USDA’s December forecast (marked in red) is on the optimistic side Read more
Weather in the southern hemisphere will be the dominant force in the soybean market this month. A China trade agreement would be a positive force on soybean price discovery.
The USDA estimated the market hog inventory December 1, 2019 at almost 71 million head compared to less than 69 million head at the same time a year ago. The number easily exceeded the trend established the previous 40 years. Pork export demand is at an all time high due Read more