The soybean/corn price ratio since harvest suggests corn will gain some area at the expense of soybeans in 2025. The cost of corn seeding compared to soybeans, as measured by the fertilizer price index, is well below the recent peak in 2022, but still high compared to years prior to Read more
The soybean/corn price ratio has fallen well below the past 30-year average so far this crop year. The price ratio is the primary determinant of changes in soybean planted area. The current ratio suggests a two million acre decline in soybean area in 2025. We use the October/March 15 soybean Read more
The South American soybean crop is now forecast at 235 million tonnes compared to 214 million tonnes a year ago. We have combined USDA data with private forecasts to derive our 2025 projection. The 2024 US soybean crop totaled only 121 million tonnes. China is expected to import 109 million Read more
The USDA’s December US hog census found the herd had grown just 1% over the last year. Hog producers plan to expand the number of sows & gilts farrowed 1% over the next six months. Improvement in hog industry efficiency was reflected in a record number of pigs saved per Read more
US Cattle on feed December 1, 2024.was down slightly on a year over year basis. Feedlot managers have been able keep their feedlot numbers reasonably close to optimal numbers despite a tight feeder cattle supply. Holding cattle longer putting on additional weight has been the critical strategy to keep feedlots Read more
US wheat usage is projected to increase this season owing to improved export demand and price levels that have encouraged wheat as feed and boosted food usage modestly. The US wheat carryout to crop year usage ratio, a key indicator of old crop wheat futures prices, is forecast to increase Read more
The December 1 , 2024 US hog herd Inventory likely increased compared to a year earlier.The accompanying balance table displays estimates for the fall pig crop compared to slaughter which is by now known from daily data. The September November US pig crop estimate assumes the September 2024 USDA planned Read more
USDA projects a 5% year over year decline in US beef production in 2025 with the steepest reduction occurring in the second half of the year. April live cattle futures are already trading near the USDA projected winter/spring high. Tight feeder cattle supplies, and the outlook for tightening beef supplies Read more
USDA reduced the US 2024/2025. corn carryout stocks projection this month reflecting strong export sales this autumn. So far the sales leap has been accomplished without the participation of China. Significant sales to China would be very positive for corn futures prices, but so far there has been no indication Read more
Historically the November – July soybean spread has been associated with the US old crop soybean carryout. The accompanying scatter studies display the winter spread range data as a function of USDA’s winter assessment of the US old crop supply/usage balance. This month (December 2024) USDA projected the 2024/25 US Read more
US Feeder cattle placements and finished cattle sales both increased in October compared to the same month a year ago. Based on recent feedlot data, steer & heifer slaughter will be about unchanged over the next eight months. Beef production from feedlot marketings is projected to increase because of heavier Read more
Chicago wheat futures prices have been under pressure this autumn due to the outlook for an increase in old crop US wheat carryout stocks. USDA expects a modest decrease in world wheat stocks during the 2024/25 crop year. US Wheat export sales have been the best in four years this Read more
USDA projected a nearly 20% cut in the average price of soybean meal during the 2024/2025 crop year. Stiff competition from Southern Hemisphere soybean producers accounts for the bearish outlook for soybean meal despite the prospect for very strong usage in 2024/25. The soybean planted area and production is expected Read more
USDA cut the US corn production estimate this month but made only fractional changes to crop year 2024/25 usage projections. USDA maintained a $4.10 average price at farm level for the 2024/25 crop year. Cash corn was trading just under $4.00 on 11/12/24. A linear model regressing the high and Read more
USDA has projected a 2% increase in US pork production in 2025. According to USDA US net pork exports will increase again in 2025 and moderate the quantity of pork available for domestic consumption in 2025. USDA January/March 2025 Live hog price forecast suggests February2025 hogs on the CME are Read more
USDA has forecast a 3% reduction in US beef production next year. Fewer cattle marketed in 2025 will be partially offset by heavier sale weights . Costly feeder cattle and cheap feed grains and protein feeds favor the heavier market weight strategy. We have included historical ranges for February live Read more
US corn export sales for the 2024/25 crop year totaled 1.02 billion bushels on October 24, up 300 million bushels from a year ago and 44% of the USDA’s current crop year forecast of 2.325 billion bushels. In the previous 35 years, late October US corn export sales have averaged Read more
Cash soft red wheat established a row crop harvest low of $5.41 on September 19/ 2024. Historically, soft red wheat has made a low price in the Autumn even in years with burdensome US wheat stocks. We have ranked the study years by the US wheat carryout to crop year Read more
NOAA has forecast La Nina conditions for the western Pacific for the northern hemisphere autumn of 2024. We picked out the five years with strong La Nina conditions, as defined by NOAA, and examined the Brazilian soybean crop outcome compared to trend. In one crop year, 2011/2012, yield was sharply Read more
December Hogs Futures have rallied sharply since making a low last summer. The reported heavy (over 120 pounds) hog census data on September 1 missed the mark to the low side based on lighter than expected slaughter data since early September. In a previous post we published a study suggesting Read more