USDA Is scheduled to release the first U.S. corn supply usage balance of the 2020/2021 season in May. The May first balance estimates of the season are based on the March planting intention survey and the prevailing economic situation in early May. We have constructed a new crop corn Read more
USDA Is scheduled to release the first U.S. soybean supply usage balance of the 20/21 season in May. The first balance estimates of the season are based on the March planting intention survey forecast and the size of the old soybean crop in South America. Leftover old crop Southern American Read more
Midwest farmers got field work underway with slightly wetter than normal soils but much better conditions than a year ago.
We have scattered the Deliverable hog prices as a function of domestic per capita pork supply for the spring and summer period. The points for 2020 are based on the USDA’ April 2020 report forecast and current futures quotes. The spring contract is trading low on economic value while the Read more
The rating for winter wheat declined this week to 57% good or excellent compared to 62% a week ago and also 62% in mid April 2019. Corn planting was reported at 7% complete compared to the five year average of 9%. A wet planting season cut corn area in Read more
The USDA is scheduled to release the March Cattle On feed report on April 24. We estimate cattle placements last month at 1.95 million head compared to 2.01 million head in March 2019. Our marketing estimate for March is 1.85 million head compared 1.8 million head a year earlier. The Read more
Feeder cattle are trading well below levels established in recent years. Feeder cattle are a residual claimant with bids based on the anticipated revenue from fat cattle and the cost of feed to finish cattle. Finished cattle have declined roughly 27% since the beginning of the current virus pandemic while Read more
Deliverable hogs prices are at the recent five year low, but remain well above the all time low of $18/cwt in he 1995-2020 period. Large hog supplies and a leftward shift in domestic pork demand has pressured deliverable values. Seasonally cash hog prices have usually advanced from early spring into Read more
The accompanying scatter study shows the April/June monthly high for corn prices as a function of the ratio of US corn carryout stocks to crop year corn food and industrial plus exports. The data is from the USDA April World supply/usage report. The concept is to use the least elastic Read more
The USDA Rated 62% of the winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition on the 2nd week of April 2020 compared to the five year average for that date of 48%. The graph displays the US winter wheat yield since 1988 and a forecast range for 2020 based on Read more
A sharp leftward shift in the corn ethanol demand function pulled the bottom out of the corn market this spring. A collapse in the crude oil market and a reduction in overall fuel demand from stay at home drivers cut the use of ethanol, a prime component of the domestic Read more
The USDA cut the 2019/20 soybean export estimate this month but increased the crush assessment. Competition from the big South American soybean crop is reducing old export prospects. U.S. soybean processors have benefited from increased soybean meal disappearance and stronger soybean oil exports. The crush would be stronger but for Read more
Live cattle futures are trading at a sharp discount to what would be expected from 1) the USDA’s April beef supply estimates and 2) the beef supply – live price function established in the period of 2000 through 2019. The economic downturn because of the virus quarantine is the dominant Read more
The USDA increased the 2020 pork production estimate again this month. Hog farms were more productive in the last half of 2019 and early 2020 than had been expected from the December Hogs and Pigs report. The March 2020 survey found hog numbers larger than anticipated. USDA cut the 2020 Read more
The USDA cut the estimate for corn used to make fuel in 2019/2020 by just under 400 million bushels this month. The ethanol industry has been hit hard this spring because of falling crude oil prices and a reduction in the number of miles driven due to quarantine restrictions. Read more
The USDA dropped both the Argentine and Brazilian soybean estimates this month. Dry weather late in the growing season resulted in yield expectations still at trend level but falling short of the above trend outlook published a month ago. In the period from the mid 1980’s into 2019 the correlation Read more
The USDA Rated 62% of the U.S. wheat crop in good or excellent condition on April 5 which is an improvement over the 52% rated at good/excellent prior to dormancy. In the period 1988 through 2019 USDA rated an average 52% of the winter wheat crop in good or excellent Read more
The March planting intentions survey reported 30. 8 million acres seeded to winter wheat was about the same as found in the winter 2020 survey. Farmers intend to plant 13.9 million acres to spring wheat in 2020 which is down marginally from a year ago. Assuming our trend yield Read more
The USDA’s March survey put the area planted to soybeans in 2020 at 83.5 million acres which would be up sharply from a year ago, but under the average area planted in the years of 2017 through 2018.. The R2 between the March survey and the final area estimate was Read more
The USDA’s March survey put the area planted to corn in 2020 at just under 97 million acres which would be slightly short of the record established in 2012. The R2 between the March survey and the final area estimate was 96% in the period from 1965 through 2019 and Read more