We have calculated a revised US wheat balance incorporating the June acreage data and the most recent crop condition reports. Our U.S. wheat carryout in 2021 is slightly larger than USDA’s early June forecast.
The USDA raised the soybean planted area estimate modestly based on data gathered from the June survey. Here is a look at the supply/demand balance incorporating the new data. The center column is the WAOB June estimate and the right most column assumes the June survey estimate.
USDA cut the corn planted area estimate by three million acres. Farmers are thought to have planted 92 million acres to corn this spring. 2020 plotted in red. We have calculated a 2020/2021 corn supply/usage balance based on the revised data. Note the resulting 2021 carryout is more a Read more
USDA rated 71% of the US Soybean crop in good or excellent condition as of June 29 which compares to the 1988 through 2019 average 61%. Our study projects a yield of 50 bushels per acre which is still off from the previous record 52 bushels. The study has a Read more
USDA rated 73% of the US corn crop in good or excellent condition as of June 29 which compares to the 1988 through 2019 average 65%. Our study projects a yield of 180 bushels per acre which is up slightly from the previous record. The study has a standard error Read more
We estimate cattle on feed July 1 down about 2% from the previous year. The first scatter study plots third quarter beef production as a function of the number of cattle on feed July 1. Our second scatter plots the third quarter average Midwest steer price as a function of Read more
The USDA estimated the U.S hog inventory on June 1 at almost 80 million head a record for the date. We have plotted the June hog inventory plus net live hog imports compared to the commercial hog slaughter in the following June/November period. Note the big increase in finished hog Read more
USDA rated 70% of the US Soybean crop in good or excellent condition as of June 21 which compares to the 1988 through 2019 average 61%. Our study projects a yield of 50 bushels per acre which is off from the previous record 52 bushels. The study has a standard Read more
USDA rated 72% of the US corn crop in good or excellent condition as of June 21 which compares to the 1988 through 2019 mid June average of 66%. Our study projects a yield of 179 bushels per acre which is up slightly from the previous record. The study has Read more
Soybean meal appears to have significant upside potential assuming the USDA’s June 2020/2021 soybean supply/demand balance. The graph shows the calculation of high and low 48 % cash soybean meal forecasts when the 2020/2021 soybean carryout and soybean meal export estimates are applied to parameters derived from 1983 through 2020 Read more
The USDA rated 71% of the corn crop in good or excellent condition in Mid June which compares with 59% a year ago. We have seasonally adjusted the mid June rating to obtain a yield estimate. Our model projects a national corn yield of 179 bushels/acre which is close to Read more
USDA has forecast the combined new crop Brazilian/Argentine crop at 184 million tonnes compared to the 174 million tonne crop just harvested. Preparation for the new crop will begin in September. The 2019/2020 South American growing season proved to be just average especially in Argentina where yield fell below trend. Read more
USDA increased the 2020 U.S. beef production estimate this month after a sharp reduction in the WAOB May estimate. The beef industry has recovered more quickly the USDA had anticipated last spring. The accompanying scatter study displays the price of Midwest finished steers as a function of the July Read more
The USDA has forecast an increase in pork production in 2021 compared to the artificially limited slaughter of 2020. Hog slaughter is making a steady increase compared to the dip in April and May when many plants were closed due Covid 19. USDA dropped the 2020 pork export estimate in Read more
The USDA forecasts the new crop soybean carryout at 395 bushels compared to the old crop estimate of 585 million.We have developed supply/usage tables which assume soybean production in a poor growing year and in a great growing season. We have not adjusted usage from that assumed by USDA. The Read more
The USDA projected the new crop U.S. corn carryout at 3.3 billion bushels, roughly unchanged from the May estimate and a mountain compared to previous years. A poor crop year such as 2012 would result in a new crop carry out of less than one billion bushels. But the current Read more
The USDA rated 77 percent of the corn crop in good or excellent condition which compares to the 25-year early June average of 66%. USDA will likely stick to the May corn crop production estimate which was 16 billion bushels. The June 2020 WAOB estimates are scheduled for release June Read more
The USDA rated 82 percent of the spring wheat crop in good or excellent condition this week. The rating suggests a crop of 662 million bushels assuming the March 2020 Planting survey data.
USDA rated 54 percent of the winter wheat in good or excellent condition compared to 52 percent last week and the 1988 through 2019 average of 48 percent good excellent. Our wheat model based on late May crop conditions estimates the U.S.winter wheat crop at 1262 million bushels which is Read more
We have developed a summer cash soybean price model based on the U.S soybean supply usage balance as forecast by the USDA in late summer and the price of soybeans prevailing in the spring. The results of the equations are displayed in the accompanying chart. As a start we Read more