USDA rated 54 percent of the winter wheat in good or excellent condition compared to 52 percent last week and the 1988 through 2019 average of 48 percent good excellent. Our wheat model based on late May crop conditions estimates the U.S.winter wheat crop at 1262 million bushels which is Read more…
We have developed a summer cash soybean price model based on the U.S soybean supply usage balance as forecast by the USDA in late summer and the price of soybeans prevailing in the spring. The results of the equations are displayed in the accompanying chart. As a start we Read more…
The USDA is scheduled to release the April Cattle of Feed data May 22, 2020. We estimate the on feed inventory at 11 million head which is down from 11.8 million head a year ago. Although fewer cattle were on hand the inventory likely is made up of a larger Read more…
The USDA cut the 2020 Pork production estimate this month the result of plant closures as finished hog supplies remain plentiful. Hog processing appears to have turned the corner suggesting USDA’s production cut for 2020 could prove overly pessimistic. The USDA has forecast a trend increase in pork Read more…
USDA cut the 2020 US beef production estimate through the summer because of processing plant closures. The chart shows the changes on an annual basis. In April and the first half of May beef production dropped roughly 20% because of plant closures. But the number of cattle being processed Read more…
The USDA has forecast the new crop U.S. wheat carryout at 906 million bushels compared to 978 million bushels this season. The USDA’s wheat production forecast seems fair. The winter crop is close to being made, but the spring crop could still vary sharply from USDA’s assumption. S/D balance as Read more…
The highlight of the WAOB May corn reports was a very large new crop US corn carryout stocks forecast. The March planting survey had farmers increasing corn planted area this season so traders had anticipated a burdensome corn supply outlook in 2020/2021. USDA shuffled old crop corn usage estimates increasing Read more…
The USDA increased the old crop soybean carryout this month due to weaker than expected export demand. Otherwise the old crop balance was unchanged. The new crop carryout was projected at 400 million bushels which we judge as neither burdensome or tight. The USDA anticipates a major recovery in soybean Read more…
The winter wheat crop was rated 53% good to excellent this week which was down from 55% last week, but still exceeds the 33 year average of 49%. The USDA will release the first US winter estimate of the season May 12. We have estimated the crop in a previous Read more…
U.S. Soybean meal export sales totaled 10.5 million short tons (for 2019/2020 delivery) in early May which was off from 11.4 million tons at the same time year ago. We have scattered crop year exports using Early May sales as a barometer. Note the point in red representing the USDA’s Read more…
The USDA has scheduled release of the May winter wheat estimate for May 12. In an earlier post we forecast the winter wheat crop at 1234 million bushels and we will maintain that estimate as conditions have not changed radically. We did want to present a scatter study which uses Read more…
Ethanol prices and corn processing margins have stabilized in the past week, but ethanol is still trading at a substantial premium to gasoline. Corn used as fuel feed-stock dropped off in March and weekly data reveals the negative trend has accelerated in the last month. Ethanol exports have also Read more…
Hog futures prices have been on the uptrend the past week as traders anticipate huge margins will induce the reopening of pork processing plants. Hog futures prices remain well behind the pork cutout value, but that gap will close rapidly with the resumption of processing work.
U.S. pork export sales remain strong with roughly two thirds of the year over year increase attributed to China. Export sales are squeezing out domestic consumers as about 40 percent of the pork processing capacity is closed due to the Covid 19 virus. There will be plenty of hogs Read more…
The wheat (SRW) corn price spread has moved to the upper level of historical experience ignoring the spike that occurred in the 2007/2008 crop year. The drop in corn used as fuel stocks and the prospect of a burdensome new crop corn supply has widened the wheat – corn price Read more…
The urgency of getting beef packing plants back on line is illustrated by graphing packer margins over the past few months. The beef industry will become increasingly distorted if farmers and ranchers are not allowed access to now shuttered packing plants. Live cattle futures will get a lift when Read more…
The value of corn has lost on the value of soybeans this spring. The reduction in demand for corn as fuel stock and the expectation of a surplus in new crop corn supplies has weighed on corn prices. Both in absolute terms and relative to soybeans. Farmers could Read more…
The USDA Rated 54% of the winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition in the fourth week of April 2020 compared to the five year average for that date of 51%. The graph displays the US winter wheat yield since 1988 and a forecast range for 2020 based Read more…
Our calculations suggest a feeder cattle supply on April 1 of 20.2 million head compared to 19.7 million head a year ago. Historically the feeder cattle supply has proved a useful barometer of feeder prices in the May July period. The last August feeder quotes on Friday (4/24/20) were very Read more…
Cattle feedlot placements dropped sharply last month while March marketings increased leaving a big drop in the number of cattle on feed April 1, 2020. First quarter placements were the fewest since 2015 while marketings during the January/March period were the largest since the year 2000. Since some slaughter Read more…