The USDA forecast the season average corn price at farm level in 20/21 at $3.10 compared to $3.60 during the season just concluded. The $3.10 forecast would suggest a season high of $3.68 and season low of $2.63 basis cash corn in Central Illinois. Our studies are based on the Read more
The USDA forecast the season average soybean price at farm level in 20/21 at $8.35 compared to $8.55 during the season just concluded. The $8.35 forecast would suggest a season high of $10.36 and season low of $7.25 basis cash soybeans in Central Illinois. Our studies are based on the Read more
USDA cut the US corn rating to 69% good or excellent from 71% the previous week. As can be observed in the chart ratings have a strong bias to drop in the late summer. The summer storm of 8/10/2020 likely did some damage in Iowa, but the quantity of corn Read more
The USDA rated 72% of the soybean crop in good or excellent condition as of 8/16/2020 compared to 74% the previous week and the 31-year average of 57%. Ratings normally drop slightly in August as can be observed in the chart. Last week’s storm damage would amount to less than Read more
The accompanying scatter displays 4th qt. Deliverable hog price as a function of the October-December domestic pork supply. The point labeled 2020 is based on the August 2020 WAOB report and current December hog futures. Hogs are currently trading below the regression line but within the standard error of the Read more
The accompanying scatter study displays the average season farm level soybean price as a function of the soybean carryout stocks to crop year usage ratio. The August 2020 WAOB soybean supply usage balance results in a new crop ratio of 14% compared to the old crop ratio of 16%. Read more
USDA expects pork production to recover through the remainder of 2020 and also increase modestly in 2021.Pork exports will continue to be a major supporting force in the hog market.
USDA rated 74% of the soybean crop in good or excellent condition on August 9 compared to the 32 year average for that date of 58%.The rating is associated with a yield estimate on 51+ bushels per acre compared the USDA July estimate of slightly less than 50 bushels.
The USDA is scheduled to release the August corn crop estimate on August 12,2020. We estimate the August yield estimate at 183 bushels per acre which compares to the current record 177 bushels/harvested acre set in 2017. The correlation index for the August corn yield forecast and the final Read more
The USDA is scheduled to release the August soybean crop estimate on August 12,2020. We estimate the August yield estimate at 51 bushels per acre which is just off the record 52 bushels/harvested acre set in 2016. The correlation index for the August yield forecast and the final estimate published Read more
The USDA has forecast Midwest steers in the 4th quarter will average $105/CWT. compared to $113 last fall and December 2020 futures of $112 trading on 8/4/2020. The accompanying scatter displays the price of finished steers as a function of the 4th quarter domestic beef supply on a per person Read more
Midwest farmers will likely enjoy another record corn yield this season. Our model based on the early August crop rating projects a national average corn yield of 183+ bushels per harvested acre which exceeds the previous record by six bushels per acre.
A model that forecasts the National average soybean yield based on late July conditions projects a yield of just under 51 bushels per harvested acre compared to USDA’s July estimate of just under 50 bushels. Holding usage constant would put the 2020/2021 carryout at 480+ bushels compared to the USDA’s Read more
USDA rated 72% of the U.S. corn crop in good or excellent condition as of July 27. With more than 80% of the crop past the silking stage and a quarter in the dough stage we consider the 2020 corn crop made. Our model projects a yield of 180+ bushels Read more
The accompanying scatter study plots the U.S. national average season price for corn as a function of the carryout stocks usage ratio. We have deducted feed usage leaving the more inelastic exports, food, seed and fuels categories. In the July 2020 WAOB report the USDA’s supply usage balance resulted Read more
USDA rated 69% of the U.S. Corn crop in good or excellent condition as of 07/19/20. Mid July conditions point to a 180 /bushel per acre Corn yield which is a little better than USDA’s July estimate.
USDA rated 69% of the U.S. Soybean crop in good or excellent condition as of 07/19/20. Mid July conditions point to a 50+ soybean yield which is a little better than USDA’s July estimate.
The value of ethanol and DDGS has made a sharp recovery this summer. Weather will continue to be the dominant force in the corn market for a few more weeks. Cranking up corn processing will put a higher bottom to the corn market than was anticipated last spring.
The USDA rated both the soybean and corn crops over 70% in good or excellent condition as of July 5. Ratings of 65% plus have often been associated with record or near record yields. Hot dry weather could still derail corn yields as just 10% of the crop is through Read more
We calculate the July 1 cattle inventory at 109 million head which is about the same as the last two years.The USDA is scheduled to release the U.S. Cattle report on July 24, 2020. July through December commercial cattle slaughter will likely increase modestly compared to a year ago. Note Read more