US corn feed residual use increased modestly during the first quarter of 2020/21 crop year. By contrast USDA projects a 4% drop in crop year feed and residual disappearance.USDA reasons the recent bull corn market will ration corn supplies thru the last three quarters of the crop year. We have Read more
The WOAB forecast the US soybean carryout for the 2020/2021 season at 140 million bushels or 3% of crop year usage which would be among the tightest seasons in the last 50 years. Our long term price model suggests a winter spring high for Central Illinois soybeans at near $18 Read more
The December hog survey suggests barrow and gilt slaughter will decline modestly this quarter compared to a year ago. Slaughter is likely to overrun the year earlier level this spring as last year’s data was distorted by the Covid 19 problem. On a longer historical prospective deliverable hogs are trading Read more
Ethanol processors are paying plus $1.36 for corn since harvest. The increased corn value has been derived from an increased $.27 from the value of ethanol, $.56 increased value of distillers dried grains (DDGS), and $.53 from reduced processor margin. DDGS values are correlated with soybean meal prices and the Read more
The USDA forecasts 2020/21 US meal exports at 14 million short tons which is optimistic compared to end of December sales of less than seven million tons. USDA may be counting on the recent tendency for US soybean meal sales to strengthen in the second half of the crop year Read more
Dry weather has hampered South American soybean development this season. USDA will almost certainly downgrade the crop estimates on January 12. We have plugged in our crop estimates assuming the soybean crops in both Brazil and Argentina will fall at trend level or less. The Austral season still has roughly Read more
The USDA forecast the average crop year farm price for corn of $4.00 per bushel in the November WAOB report. We have scattered the winter/spring summer high and low for Central Illinois Corn as a function of the USDA’s November average prices forecast. The studies have respectable R2 statistics of Read more
The USDA is scheduled to release the November Cattle of Feed data December 18, 2020. We estimate the on feed inventory at 12.2 million head which is up 1% from 12 million head a year ago and a record high by a small margin for the date. Beef demand has Read more
We estimate the US hog Inventory on December 1 at 76 million head, down from 78 million on September 1, 2020 and 79 million head a year ago. Our estimate assumes farmers stuck with plans expressed in the September, 2020 farrowing survey. The December Hogs and Pigs report is scheduled Read more
Cattle on feed November 1 hit the highest level since 2008 but October feedlot placements were at the low end of recent history. Finished cattle marketings in October were at the high end of recent history. Finished cattle supplies are expected to remain adequate to slightly surplus through the late Read more
In the November WAOB report USDA forecast finished Midwest steers would average $114 in 2021 which is about the same as an average of cattle futures prices on 11/17/2020. The accompanying scatter study displays the annual average live steer price as a function of the USDA’s November (previous year) forecast. Read more
USDA reported 46% of the US winter wheat crop was in good or excellent condition on November 15 compared to 52% at the same time a year ago and the past 30 year mid November average of 57%. In most past years in which the winter wheat crop was rated Read more
The USDA forecast the average price of soybean oil at Central Illinois processors for October 2020 through September 2021 at 34 cents per pound this month roughly 4 cents under current near by futures quotes. We have scattered the winter/spring high and low for cash soybean oil as a function Read more
In the November WAOB report USDA forecast the 2021 US soybean carryout at 190 million bushels or about 4% of crop year usage. The accompanying scatter studies display the October/May high and low for central Illinois soybeans as a function of the US soybean carryout as a % of crop Read more
The accompanying scatter study displays January/March deliverable hog prices as a function of the domestic pork supply per capita in the same quarter. The data released in the November 2020 WAOB report suggest a per capita pork supply of 16.8 pounds which is slightly smaller than a year ago. February Read more
The accompanying scatter study displays the fall – winter high in Chicago soft red wheat as a function of the US wheat carryout as a percentage of crop year food usage + exports. We have marked the WAOB November ratio estimate and the current high for December 2020 futures. Read more
The accompanying scatter studies display the first and second quarter average Midwest steer price as a function of per capita domestic beef supply. The points plotted USDA are based on data in the November 2020 WAOB report. The February and April futures contracts are trading between $3.00 and $6.00 premium Read more
USDA expects the foreign corn deficit to widen this season as growth in disappearance outpaces production. Foreign consumers will likely fill needs with US corn as foreign stocks have tightened and are no longer an alternative to buying US corn.
The 2020/2021 prospective corn supply/usage balance has transformed from large stocks to the possible need to ration supplies. The change is remarkable for being accomplished without a major summer drought which was the case in most late summer bull markets. The mid summer storm helped but crop damage was mild Read more
USDA cut the Argentine soybean production estimate this month as planted area appears likely to fall short of earlier expectations. Weather to date has been average to above average and easily supports a trend yield forecast. USDA left the Brazilian soybean production estimate at the level maintained the past Read more