US farmers responding to the March survey planned to plant 91 million acres of corn in 2021 roughly the same as was actually seeded last year but far less than was suggested by the March 2020 survey. Assuming … … An average harvested to planted ratio of 92%. … And Read more
The March Planting Survey projected 2021 soybean planted area at 87.6 million acres, up from 83 million acres a year ago , but short of what is needed to cover usage as presently forecast by USDA. We have scattered the final soybean planted area as a function of the March Read more
The US had sold a record 2.56 billion bushels of corn by mid March with 36% of the total accounted for by China. In the March WAOB report USDA forecast 2020/2021 crop year exports at 2.6 billion bushels. We have scattered crop year exports as a function of mid March Read more
USDA reported the number of market hogs on US farms March 1, 2021 totaled 69 million head which was down one million head or 2% from a year ago. As might be expected virtually all of the variation in March September barrow and gilt slaughter is associated with the number Read more
USDA reported a near record 12 million head of cattle on feed March 1. February placements declined 2% from the previous year while feedlot marketings also declined 2% year over year. The accompanying scatter study displays spring finished cattle prices as a function of the domestic beef supply per capita. Read more
The USDA estimated the 2021 US corn carryout at 1.5 billion bushes which would be the smallest ending corn carryout since 2014. We have scattered the spring high for Chicago cash corn as a function of the ratio of corn carryout stocks to crop year food-industrial plus exports. We found Read more
Midwest soybeans appear to have additional upside potential based on forecast in the latest WAOB report. USDA now estimates the 2020/2021 US soybean carryout at only 120 million bushels or less than 3% of crop year usage (excluding residual) compared to 10% a year ago. We have scattered the harvest Read more
US farmers are likely to increase corn planted area this spring if weather allows. We estimate the March Prospective Plantings report will find 93 million acres planned for corn production in 2021 compared to the 91 million acres planted in 2020. Based on USDA February 2021 cost and revenue estimates, Read more
US soybean meal sales are running under the pace to make the USDA’s crop year forecast of 14.24 million short tons. But there have been a two years in which the pace of meal sales in the spring and summer quickend sufficiently to push the crop year meal sales total Read more
We estimate the number of cattle on feed March 1 at 12 million head, up fractionally from the record established for the date in 2006. Placements may have dropped one percent in February while we estimate marketings declined 6 percent year over year. Ample fed cattle supplies will likely weigh Read more
The March 2021 US hog inventory likely fell well short of the year earlier level but remained ahead of the recent 20 year trend. The virus disruption to the slaughter schedule of a year ago appears to be cleaned up. The winter hog price rally has likely run its course Read more
Farmers are likely to increase the number of acres devoted to soybeans this spring in response to the profitability of soybeans this season. Soybeans will have to compete with $5.00 plus corn, but there should be enough area available to increase cultivation of both crops. We have plotted the soybean Read more
The USDA estimated cattle on feed February 1, 2021 at 12.1 million head, about equal to the record established in 2006. Placements increased in January compared to a year ago. Finished cattle marketings fell short of the year earlier level last month. Non fed cattle slaughter fell sharply in January. Read more
USDA increased the 2021 US .beef production estimate this month. A record number of cattle on feed compared to the total cattle inventory may have prompted the increase. We have scattered Midwest finished steer prices against the domestic per capita beef supply for the April/June period. Note that current Read more
China’s big dive into the international corn market caught many traders and the USDA by surprise. China’s corn production in 2020 was about the same as a year earlier according to USDA data. China’s stock data is questionable but it does suggest a reduction in inventory. China’s decision to increase Read more
The big corn export sales to China talked about for several weeks showed in this week’s export sales report. The accompanying scatter study displays crop year US corn exports as a function of export sales at the end of January. US corn sales for 2020/2021 delivery totaled 2.2 billion bushels Read more
The USDA estimated the number of steers and heifers on January 1 at 12.2 million head which is slightly larger than the year earlier level. The number of steers and heifers sent to market during the first half of 2021 will likely exceed the 2020 level as cattle sales last Read more
The USDA estimated the feeder cattle supply over 500 pounds on January 1, 2021 at 11.5 million head which is about equal to the year earlier tally. We have scattered the average feeder cattle price during the first quarter of the year as a function of the feeder supply. Note Read more
The prosperity grain producers have enjoyed since harvest has squeezed hog producers financial balance. Hog prices have lost on both major costs of operation, corn and soybean meal. We have plotted the hog/corn and hog/soybean meal ratios for the winter quarter and both ratios are near or at 25-year lows. Read more
We estimate the US cattle inventory on January 1 at 94.8 million head which is up marginally from the past three years. Cattle numbers have been relatively stable over the past few years breaking, at least temporarily, from the inventory cycle that prevailed through most of the post WWII period. Read more