In the June 2021 WAOB report USDA forecast Midwest Steers would average $118 in the July 2021 through December 2021 period. The accompanying scatter study plots Midwest finished steers as a function of per capita domestic beef supply. We have plotted the current average futures price for finished cattle or Read more…
USDA rated 68% of the US corn crop in good or excellent condition on June 13 which is right on the previous 25 year average. Midwest topsoil moisture was rated 65% adequate or surplus which is down from the late spring ratings of recent years. USDA’s current 2021 corn trend Read more…
The rising value of corn ethanol has sustained the corn crush industry at a time of a tight old crop corn supply usage balance. The value of DDGS ( a by-product of the corn crush process used as animal feed) has also moved higher since harvest, but at a much Read more…
The contributing value of soybean meal and soybean oil on a per bushel basis were roughly equal in central Illinois on June 3 which is a very unusual situation. The crush margin basis Decatur Illinois exceeded $3.00 per bushel in the week ending June 3 which is the best in Read more…
USDA rated just 43% of the US spring wheat crop in good to excellent condition on May 30 which compares to the preceding 25-year average for the date of 72% good or excellent. Eighty percent of the crop had emerged on May 30. In the past US spring wheat crops Read more…
The US hog inventory on June 1 declined about 6% year over year based on data available in early June. Hog prices exceeded $100/cwt last quarter but just kept up with corn values leaving hog production profitability slightly under the last five years. 2021 US balance based on Read more…
The completion of corn planting and the purchase of new crop corn by China has focused attention on the summer season and the potential forces on the 2021/2022 corn season. The WAOB projected the 2021/2022 US corn carryout at 1.5 billion bushels or just 17% of food, industrial usage and Read more…
Kansas City hard red wheat could be expected to trade between $5.00 and $7.00 this summer based on the USDA’s May balance table. But the forecast price range would increase at least .75/bushel assuming a 60 million bushel drop in production from the May estimate, as suggested by the most Read more…
The USDA dropped the winter wheat crop rating to 47% good or excellent on May 23 versus 54% at the same time last year and 48% average over the last 30 Years. A yield model which uses the crop condition index and trend to forecast the June winter yield estimate Read more…
In the May 2021 WAOB report the USDA forecast a modest decline in per capita domestic pork supply in the last half of 2021. Last half of 2021 lean hog futures are trading at substantial premium to historical economic value as is illustrated in the accompanying scatter study. Traders may Read more…
USDA expects a modest cut in domestic beef supplies per capita in 2021 and 2022. The accompanying scatter study displays Midwest finished steer values as a function of domestic per capita beef supply. USDA estimates steers at $116 in 2021 and $122 in 2022. Futures quotes for the same period Read more…
USDA projected the new crop US corn carryout at 1.5 billion bushels or 17% of fsi+exports. A ratio of stocks to the least elastic corn demand provides the most accurate index of Midwest corn prices. Our work suggests the USDA’s May new crop corn production estimate is conservative relative to Read more…
Midwest farmers had two thirds of the corn crop planted by May 09 which is well ahead of the 5-year average of 52%. Only Iowa reported more than average dry top soil moisture suggesting the first crop ratings in June will show favorable corn yield potential.
Farmers had seeded 17% of intended corn area as of 4/25/21 compared to the preceding five year average of 20%. New crop corn is not yet the dominant force in the corn market as evidenced by old crop contracts gaining on new crop futures. Inverting spreads are the classic symptom Read more…
The USDA rated 49% of the US winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition on April 25. 2021 compared to 53% the previous week and 52% good-excellent average over the previous 33 years. A linear fit between the US winter wheat crop rating and yield results in a forecast Read more…
The March Prospective Planting survey found farmers intending to plant 87.6 million acres to soybeans this spring. Except in a favorable growing season that area won’t be enough to cover 2021/2022 US soybean usage as projected in the benchmark estimates published in February 2021. In the near term the market’s Read more…
The USDA has scheduled the first new crop corn supply/usage balance of the 2021/2022 crop year for May 12, 2021. In the accompanying balance table we have assumed US corn area planted at the March Prospective surrey level of 91 million acres and the February Benchmark data for the yield Read more…
USDA has increased the US beef production estimate in each of the last four months. Feedlot managers have operated at a higher percentage of capacity since last autumn than might be expected considering the cost of feed and the number of feeder cattle available. But an increase in net beef Read more…
We estimate cattle on feed April 1 at 11.7 million head, down from 12 million head a month earlier but still ahead of 11.3 million head a year ago. Our April 1 estimate assumes March marketings jumped to 2.05 million head versus 2.01 million head a year ago while placements Read more…
USDA forecasts all wheat planted area in 2021 at 47 million acres, up from 44 million acres a year ago. Production will fall short of usage in 2021/2022 assuming … … A trend yield of 49.5 bushels per harvested acre as projected by USDA. … New crop US wheat usage Read more…