USDA will provide any revisions it feels needed to the 2025 South American soybean crop estimates in the next WASDE report. Recent crop estimates other than USDA suggest the Argentine crop potential is declining while the Brazilian crop could exceed the USDA’s January forecast. The South American aggregate production could Read more
USDA reported the number of cattle on farms and ranches January 1, 2025 at 86.7 million head, down 1% year or year and the sixth straight annual decline in US cattle numbers. We have calculated a breakout of possible cattle slaughter and an aggregate beef forecast for 2025. Our 3% Read more
US pork export sales are running well ahead of most recent years except for the China sales years of 2020 & 2021. USDA expects 25% of US pork production to be exported in 2025 compared to under 20% a decade earlier. Note Chart displays US pork export sales in each Read more
The July 2025 corn futures contract made a harvest low $4.52 and is currently trading just under $5.00 or 10% over the harvest low. In the past 57 years the winter/early spring high has averaged 25% over the harvest low or the equivalent of $5.58. Regressing the July corn high Read more
USDA reported the number of cattle on feed January 1 declined 1% from a year ago. We have calculated a ratio of cattle in feedlots as a percentage of all cattle. The January 1 , 2025 ratio was 16.6% compared to 16.5 last year and and the modern record high. Read more
We have constructed an index of hog profitability which uses futures market values and adjusts for the advancement of hog production efficiency. Note that the index currently suggests hog profitability is good enough that we can expect a modest inventory expansion in 2025. We have also charted the traditional hog Read more
The US cattle herd size likely declined again in 2024 which is the sixth consecutive drop since the cattle cycle peaked in 2019. Exceptionally favorable feeder cattle prices have caused ranchers to begin the turn in the inventory cycle by sending fewer cows and heifers to slaughter. Recent US cattle Read more
This month USDA forecast the 2024/25 crop year average price for soybean oil at $43/hundredweight compared to $48 last season. On 01/17/2025 July 2025 soybean oil closed at $47. We have included price range data for July soybean oil as a function of USDA’s January price forecast. The USDA’s $43 Read more
Historically US soybean meal prices have been tightly correlated with 1) the livestock price index and 2) the US soybean supply usage balance as represented by the ratio of the US carryout stocks to the crop year US soybean usage ratio. This month USDA forecast the 2025 US soybean carryout Read more
Earlier this month USDA forecast a record $196/Cwt. annual average for Midwestern finished cattle in 2025. Correlating the price range for June live cattle with USDA’s January estimate results in a February 2025/June 2025 price range forecast of $179 to $198 per hundredweight. June 2025 live cattle futures closed at Read more
This month USDA tightened the US 2024/25 crop year US corn supply/usage outlook by reducing the 2024 corn yield estimate. Historically the December – July (old crop new crop) corn spread has been largely a function of the old crop US corn carryover to old crop corn usage. We have Read more
Chicago May 2025 wheat is trading at the low end of our projected range. USDA expects the old crop (2024/2025) US wheat carryout to increase 15% compared to a year ago, but the world wheat carryout is estimated to decline about 9 million tonnes or 3%. US Wheat Supply/Usage Balance Read more
This month USDA forecast a 3% increase in US pork production in 2025. The USDA’s assessment is ambitious as the US hog inventory on December 1, 2024 was up less than one percent from a year ago. US Pork Supply (Million Pounds) Annual 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 % Change Read more
USDA tightened up the forecast for the US soybean supply/usage outlook this month dropping the US soybean yield estimate for the 2024 season and cutting the 2025 US soybean carryout. US Soybean S/D Million acres / Bushels 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024 2024/2025 Percent Area Planted 87.2 87.5 83.6 87.1 4% Area Read more
The January USDA survey found US winter wheat planted area for 2025 harvest up 2% year over year. The most recent USDA weekly crop condition report rated the soft red crop near 70% good plus excellent which portends an above trend yield. But conditions in hard red winter states averaged Read more
The USDA’s January US Corn Supply/Usage was considerably tighter than that published at harvest. The US corn yield was reduced from the November forecast by almost 4 bushels per acre which is the largest in the 2000s.USDA also reduced the corn feed/residual and export estimates for crop year 2024/2025. US Read more
Cash corn in the Midwest has risen 60+ cents per bushel since early harvest. The accompanying charts display the 50 year price seasonal for Corn Belt cash corn and the application of the seasonal to generate a monthly price forecast for the remainder of the 2024/2025 US corn crop year. Read more
The calculated price seasonal is a useful, although not definitive, metric for forecasting pork prices and lean hog futures spreads.The calculated seasonal pork cut out price is displayed in the accompanying chart. The cash pork cutout closed at $90.5 /Cwt. On 01/08/2025. Since the close is just above the calculated Read more
US box beef early January 2025 values are trading just under the record (except for the Covid distortion in 2020) set in the summer of 2021. Rising wholesale beef prices are the market accomplishing the function of rationing scarce beef supplies. Cattlemen appear to have started the process of increasing Read more
Corn ethanol crush margins are favorable compared to most recent years except for 2022. Corn crush levels in the first 3 months of the 2024/25 crop year were up modestly from a year ago.The $.70 cent post harvest rally probably won’t slow down ethanol mill activity. However, a rally close Read more