Central Illinois cash corn most often makes a harvest (defined as September through December) low in September or October as would be expected as these are the heavy harvest months. However Later lows in some years have occurred in November or December as the tail end of new crop corn Read more…
USDA made only a slight revision in the US soybean 2024 soybean production estimate this month and retained a 550 million bushel projection for the 2024/25 US soybean carryout. We have computed correlation and standard error estimates for three major components of the balance table, production crush and exports, based Read more…
Declining ethanol prices have tightened profit margins for US corn based ethanol producers. The elasticity of corn demand to ethanol crush margins is greatly reduced by government subsidies such as the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) which mandates the blending of a certain volume of renewable fuels (including corn ethanol) into Read more…
Cash corn price in the Midwest has made a harvest (defined as September through December) low prior to or by the first week of October in 66% of years between 1992 and 2023. The current low for cash corn is $3.63 recorded on 9/20/2024.The expected harvest low for Midwest cash Read more…
Since mid summer nearby lean hog futures prices have rallied from the low end to the upper end of the projected price range based on assumed US market fall and winter hog supplies. One factor supporting hog prices deliverable on the CME live hog contract has been strong export demand. Read more…
Last month USDA forecast an average farm level soybean price at $10.80 $/bushel for the 2024/2025 crop year. Based on recent history, the USDA’s $10.80 projection would translate to a price range for the May soybean futures contract of $9.90 to $12.86. The model statistics are displayed in the table. Read more…
The September 1, 2024 Grain Stocks Report showed US corn stocks (carryover) about 50 million bushels under the USDA’s most recent estimate. This discrepancy will likely be added to the feed residual component for the 2023/2024 crop year and much more importantly raises the prospective feed usage in the 2024/2025 Read more…
The accompanying table displays US pork production forecasts over the next six months. The farm level price forecasts are from USDA. The CME lean hog futures projections are based on a linear regression with futures high and low the dependent variable and the farm level price the in dependent variable. Read more…
The US hog inventory increased fractionally over the last year based on the USDA September Hogs and Pigs Report. We have derived slaughter estimates over the next six months based on the September inventory data and present the results in the following table. Marketings in the fall quarter are projected Read more…
This month USDA forecast the April/June average Midwest finished cattle price at $186/Cwt. Recent history reveals the April live cattle contract has made a high in excess of the USDA 2nd quarter cash forecast in nine of ten years. On September 24, 2024 the April cattle contract closed at the Read more…
This month USDA forecast an average price for Midwest finished steers of $183 per hundredweight for the October/December period On September 24, 2024 December 2024 Live cattle closed at $184 or 101% of the USDA’s fourth quarter forecast of $183. Given the shortage of feeder cattle, December live cattle appear Read more…
Feeder placements and finished cattle marketings both declined last month compared to data in August 2023. The number of cattle in US feedlots on September 1, 2024 was fractionally larger than at the same time a year ago. Feedlot operators continue to cope with the shortage of feeder cattle by Read more…
Only if the 2024/25 (Northern Hemisphere spring 2025 harvest) South American soybean crop falls significantly short of the USDA’s September 2024 forecast. The accompanying scatter studies display the high/low price range for March soybean meal as a function of the new crop US soybean carryover to crop year usage ratio. Read more…
Soybean futures contracts are likely to dip to levels last seen in 2020 if US soybean carryout stocks build to the level forecast in the September 2024 WASDE report. The Bear case for soybeans is dependent on the assumption of a very large South American soybean crop, for which field Read more…
USDA made only minor changes to the US pork supply/usage balance this month, likely preferring to await the September Hogs & Pigs report (scheduled for release September 26, 2024) to make significant changes if needed. December 2024 lean hog futures have staged a significant price rally since establishing a low Read more…
In the first week of September cash cattle were trading near $183 per hundredweight and the December 2024 live cattle contract $175. The table below displays the autumn price range for both cash and futures with a seasonal forecast for 2024. The 2024 price forecast is based solely on historical Read more…
US wheat farmers enjoyed a banner year with the 2024 national average wheat yield only fractionally under the record set in 2016. The March 2025 Chicago wheat futures contract is currently trading well above the autumn/winter low established by the 2024 March Chicago wheat contract even though the 2024/2025 US Read more…
March corn appears to be trading on the high side of the expected harvest – March price range unless USDA tightens the US 2024/2025 corn supply/usage table compared to that published in August 2024. The accompanying scatter studies display the harvest/March price range for the March corn futures contract as Read more…
We calculate the September 1, 2024 US hog inventory at 75 million head, a 2% year over year reduction. Our estimate is anchored on the USDA‘s June Sows farrowing survey which found farmers intending to reduce summer farrowings 3% from a year earlier. The September 2024 Hogs and Pigs report Read more…
USDA reported the number of cattle in large feedlots August 1 was nearly identical to the same population a year ago. Feedlot operators are holding cattle to heavier weights this year compared to recent historical data. Cheap feed costs and scarce feeder cattle supplies favor putting more weight on cattle Read more…