US farmers are projected to increase the area devoted to soybeans this spring considering —- … The soybean corn price ratio is above the midpoint of the past 30 year range. … The cost of diesel fuel and nitrogen fertilizer has increased 30+ percent and 54% respectively over the last Read more…
Fat cattle prices (basis the Midwest) are trading very close to the USDA first quarter forecast of $139/hundredweight. USDA has the live cattle value trading the low to mid $130’s range through the late summer then advancing into the Autumn. The cattle futures market is trading premium to the USDA Read more…
US soybean export sales had totaled 45 million tonnes by mid January 2022 which was down from a year ago but near the recent uptrend. The reduced sales from a year ago was due to the limited activity of China in the US soybean market. China has preferred to wait Read more…
US coarse grain sales in mid January totaled 52 million tonnes down from a year ago , but on the upper side of commitments at the same time in most of the last 30 years. The quantity of corn available from the Southern Hemisphere is still in doubt but the Read more…
Fat cattle marketings are likely to drop below the year earlier level during the first half of 2022. Our forecast is based on feeder cattle placements in the last half of 2021.
US wheat export sales totaled less than 17 million metric tons (tonnes) in mid January 2022, the second lowest total in the last 30 years. In large part scarce sales reflect the limited quantity of US wheat available for export this season (2021/2022 crop year). Also the large quantity of Read more…
In the January WASDE Report the USDA forecast the 2021/2022 US corn crop year carryout at 1.54 billion bushels based on US crop year corn usage of 14.8 billion bushels. The USDA carryout to crop year ratio would calculate to 10.4 percent. We have scattered the high and low for Read more…
US corn export sales (old and new crop) totaled 2.3 billion bushels as of 1/6/2022 which, based on historical experience, is on course to meet the USDA’s 2021/2022 crop year forecast of 2.4 billion bushels. The historical experience (1991-2021) is illustrated by the accompanying scatter study. Corn crop problems in Read more…
USDA cut the forecast for both the 2022 Argentine and Brazilian corn crops this month. However both forecasts remain very close to trend. The January estimates appear optimistic in light of the dry weather in the early season, especially in Argentina.
The central Illinois soybean crush margin has exceeded the past 30 year highs this week averaging more than $4/bushel. Strong demand for both soybean meal and oil have supported the crush margin. The soybean crop development in South America will remain the dominant force in the soybean market over the Read more…
This month USDA forecast the 2021/2022 crop year US soybean carryout at 350 million bushels or 8.1% of usage (crush, exports and seed). The accompanying scatter studies display the January – May high and lows for cash soybeans (Central Illinois) as a function of the US soybean to crop year Read more…
Dry weather in the Southern half of the Brazilian row crop area will likely result in a soybean crop smaller than the 144 million tonne (5.3 billion bushels) crop USDA forecast last month. We performed a what if analysis and assumed the 2022 Brazilian soybean yield would fall one standard Read more…
Dry weather appears to be damaging the new Argentine soybean crop. Last month USDA forecast the crop at 49.5 million tonnes or about 1.8 billion bushels. A what if analysis based on the 2011/2012 austral crop year would put the 2022 yield at 2.3 tonnes per hectare versus the December Read more…
The long term downward trend in the US cattle inventory likely continued during the second half of 2021. We estimate the US cattle herd on January 1, 2022 totaled 92 million head compared to 93.6 million head at the same time a year ago. The accompanying table and chart display Read more…
The USDA had assumed a substantial increase in both Brazilian corn production and exports this season. Dry weather could significantly change the Brazilian corn outlook and tighten the US corn supply. We have assumed a 10 million tonne switch from Brazilian origin to US origin corn and plotted the result Read more…
USDA reported year over year increases in both feeder cattle placements and finished cattle marketings last month. Based on cattle on feed data we project a 4% drop in fat cattle sales during the December 2021 through May 2022 period.
The USDA reported a 5% year over year drop in the number of hogs kept for market on December 1, 2021. Based on original historical data the reported inventory would result in a January/June 2022 FIS barrow and gilt slaughter of slightly less than 60 million head, the least since Read more…
Warmer and drier than normal weather is negatively impacting the Brazilian soybean crop. Earlier this month the USDA maintained a trend yield forecast for the new Brazilian crop of 144 million tonnes or 3.56 tonnes per hectare. As a what if exercise we assumed an average yield of 3 tonnes Read more…
Finished cattle prices have risen sharply over the last year, but cattle feedlot profitability has been eroded by rising feed costs. The finished steer/corn price ratio currently is about the same as in mid December 2020. Feeder cattle replacement cost has increased 20% over the last year. As a result Read more…
Soybean crush margins this Autumn have averaged more than $1.00 per bushel better than in the two previous years. Strong demand for both products, but especially for soybean oil, has benefited soybean crushers. Wide margins spur the soybean crush and also provide a cushion for soybeans if meal and oil Read more…