Feeder cattle placements and finished cattle sales both increased on a year over year basis last month. Cattle on feed March 1 totaled 12.1 million head which exceeded the previous year by just one percent. We forecast cattle marketings over the March/September 2022 period will exceed finished cattle sales in Read more…
USDA has increased the forecast for 2022 beef production in recent months, but beef output is still expected to fall short year over year during the last three quarters (April- December) of the forecast period. The more optimistic beef production forecast reflects the larger than normal percentage of the available Read more…
USDA has steadily lowered US pork production estimates for 2022 since trend projections were published last spring. US pork production in 2022 is expected to fall short of year earlier level, but most of the decline occurred in the first quarter of the year with April December pork output about Read more…
The accompanying scatter studies displays the spring trading range for cash soybeans as a function of the US soybean carryout/crop year usage ratio as forecast by USDA in June. Currently cash soybeans are trading at an elevated level compared to the historic stocks/price function as expressed in the regression line. Read more…
This month the USDA forecast corn feed/residual usage at 5.65 billion bushels. The accompanying scatter study displays the historical corn feed per GCAU as a function of farm level corn price. Note that the USDA corn feed/residual estimate is on the high side of historical experience. It is possible the Read more…
USDA cut the South American (Brazil. Argentina, Paraguay) this month by 10 million tonnes or 350 million bushels. The crop is now forecast to fall well below the year earlier level. Most of the deficit will be filled by US soybeans although a portion will be filled with US new Read more…
US soybean sales increased to 60 plus million tonnes in the period ending March 3, 2022 which is the second fastest pace after last season when Chinese soybeans purchases exceeded the historical pace. China has been buying new crop US soybeans over the last month as crop conditions in South Read more…
A sharp increase in production costs could limit US planted acreage this spring, but does advantage soybeans relative to corn because corn cultivation requires more energy. We have constructed a table displaying major farm input costs in Iowa as of 2/22/2022 compared to prices on 12/06/2018. Note that nitrogen, needed Read more…
We calculate the March 1,2022 US hog inventory at 73.8 million head, down slightly from a year ago. Our balance table assumes that farmers followed through with the December/February farrowing intentions expressed in the December 2022 survey and that the number of pigs saved per litter will follow the long Read more…
The USDA reported the number of cattle on feed last month was a record level for a February 1 while January net cattle placements declined two percent year over year. January finished cattle marketings declined three percent compared to the same month in 2021.. The January data suggest finished cattle Read more…
The US new crop (September 2022/August 2023)soybean carryout would not change much from the old crop February 2022 estimate based on USDA’s trend line forecasts. USDA has soybean planted area less than half million acres larger in 2022 than that planted in 2021. Farmers are likely to take advantage of Read more…
The US corn carryout would increase modestly next season (September 2022/August2023) based on the USDA’s latest trendline projections. USDA calculates the normal weather trend corn yield for 2022 at 181 bushels per harvested acre. We calculate the trend corn yield assuming normal weather at 179 bushels per acre. USDA assumes Read more…
USDA’s current wheat projections suggest a modest build up in US wheat carryout stocks over the 2022/2023 crop year. USDA is counting on a return to trend wheat yield after a sub par year in 2021. USDA is also assuming a two million plus increase in planted area. In the Read more…
Cattle futures prices are trading $8.00 premium to the USDA’s February forecast for finished steers through the end of 2022. The accompanying scatter studies display the historic high and low monthly average for Midwest finished steers as a function of domestic per capita beef supply. Note that the USDA forecast Read more…
USDA trimmed the 2021/2022 crop year US soybean carryout forecast this month to 325 million bushels from the 350 million bushels expected last month More importantly USDA also cut the South American 2022 soybean forecast to 185 million tonnes from the February forecast of 194 million tonnes. We have prepared Read more…
The USDA has cut both the Argentine and Brazilian Soybean production forecasts the two months reflecting poor growing conditions during early austral growing season. In the period from 1986 through 2021, USDA has further reduced the Argentine soybean production forecast in seven of the eight years in which the February Read more…
The US corn balance could tighten through the remainder of the crop year. US corn exports will likely benefit from smaller South American corn crops than USDA assumed last month. The use of corn in ethanol production may also increase. The quantity of corn used as feed is less certain. Read more…
USDA is likely to tighten the US soybean supply/usage forecast this month because of a smaller than expected soybean crop in South America. We have prepared a soybean balance with a what if assumption compared to the January USDA estimate. The balance table methodology used by most fundamentalists becomes less Read more…
The USDA’s January 1 US Cattle Inventory survey resulted in calculated feeder cattle supply of 25.5 million head, down 700 thousand head from a year ago. The accompanying table displays the derivation of the January 1 feeder supply. We have prepared a scatter study displaying the average feeder price (650-750 Read more…
US corn planted area could decline this spring based on the historical response to the soybean/corn price ratio during harvest through the early spring period. We calculate the current ratio at 2.7 which is modestly above the recent thirty year average. A 2.7 ratio would result in a forecast of Read more…