The accompanying scatter studies display the harvest high and low for December corn as a function of the US corn supply minus FSI and exports per GCAU (grain consuming animal units). The data is as expressed by USDA during harvest. The point for 2022/2023, marked in red as 2022, is Read more
USDA rated 64% of the US corn crop in good or excellent condition as of July 10, compared to the average 67% rating in the second week of July in the years 1985 through 2021. A rating of 64% is associated with a national average corn yield of 177 bushels Read more
US new crop wheat carryout stocks aren’t likely to vary much from the just completed crop year. The June Acreage report combined with the crop condition reports of late June suggest a total US wheat crop in 2022 of 1.78 billion bushels compared to the 1.65 billion bushel crop harvested Read more
USDA’s June acreage survey found two million plus fewer soybean acres than was forecast by the March Report. Assuming the USDA’s trend yield projection, the 88 million acres planted (87 million harvested) to soybeans would produce a crop of 4.5 billion bushels compared to the 4.4 billion bushels harvested in Read more
The USDA’s June Acreage Survey put 2022 US corn planted area at 89.9 million acres compared to the March survey of 89.4 million and planted area in 2021 of 93.4 million acres. In the June WASDE report USDA projected the national trend corn yield at 177 bushels per acre. Crop Read more
USDA reported the nation’s hog herd was down 1% on a year over year basis on June 1. Hog producers have not shown much inclination to expand production despite record finished hog prices at farm level. High feed costs have reduced hog production profitability. We calculate potential hog slaughter for Read more
Feedlots placed fewer feeder cattle than finished cattle marketed last month, but total cattle on feed June 1 still exceeded that of any previous year. We project finished cattle sales in the June/December 2022 period will increase 2% on a year over year basis. A normal seasonal July/December price range Read more
USDA rated 70% of the US corn crop in good or excellent condition as of 6/19/2022 which is modestly above average. Data for the years 1988 through 2021 would suggest a national average yield of 181 bushels per harvested acre which is equal to the forecast published by USDA in Read more
This month the USDA forecast the domestic per capita beef supply in the second half of 2022 would total 41 pound, down from 42 pounds a year ago. We have scattered the second half price range for December cattle as a function of per capita beef supply. For 2022 we Read more
This month USDA forecast the new crop (2022-2023) US soybean carryout at 280 million bushels or six percent of crop year usage. The accompanying scatter studies display the summer/harvest high and low for November soybeans as a function of the new crop US soybean crop year usage ratio as forecast Read more
Historically, December corn summer-harvest values have been correlated with the US corn carryout as forecast by USDA in early harvest. In the June WASDE report USDA forecast the 2022/2023 (new crop) carryout at 1.4 billion bushels, or 15% of crop year usage excluding feed/residual disappearance. December corn is presently trading Read more
Weekly data suggest only a minor change in the US winter wheat yield forecast this month. In May USDA forecast winter wheat planted area abandonment will be the largest since 2014. Not much of abandonment can actually be recovered, but USDA could have been a little too pessimistic last month. Read more
Feeder cattle prices could have considerable upside potential this summer, but only if farmers harvest a crop at least as large and preferably larger than USDA currently forecasts. As a residual claimant feeder cattle values closely follow feed grain values (negative) and finished cattle prices in a positive direction. Since Read more
On June 3, 2022 September soybeans closed 33 cents premium to November soybeans. Historically, the November – September spread has been a function of the US soybean carryover relative to crop year usage. The drought in South America last winter (Austral summer) created a surge in demand for US soybeans Read more
September corn is trading about 10 cents per bushel premium to the December contract. Historically, the September/December corn spread has been a function of the US corn carryover. A tight US corn carryout supports the September versus the December corn contract. By the summer of tight years (as in 2022) Read more
We calculate the US hog inventory on June 1, 2022 at 72 million head, down one million head year over year and six million fewer than the peak inventory (2020) for this cycle in 2020. Hog Balance Mar/May Million head 2020 2021 2022 March 1 75.2 73.9 72.2 Pig crop Read more
USDA reported cattle on feed May 1,2022 exceeded the year earlier level by 2% based on a 1% year over year decline in placements last month and a 2% reduction in marketings in April 2022. Analysis of historical data suggest placements over the last eight months would project marketings during the Read more
The November – December corn spread is trading close to zero on a one soybean contract to two corn contracts basis which is at the low end of the range established since the year 2000. Historically the soybean to two corn spread during the summer growing and fall harvest season Read more
December corn is trading near the expected June/December high assuming the May new crop US corn supply/usage forecast balance published by USDA on May 12. We have included a scatter study displaying the June December high for December corn as a function of the US corn carryout as a % Read more
November soybeans would have more downside than upside potential based on the USDA’s new crop supply/usage balance published on May 12. The accompanying scatter studies display the summer-fall high and low for the November soybean contract as a function of the ratio of new crop stocks to crop year usage. Read more