USDA’s March planting intentions survey data signaled an increase in both winter wheat (planted last fall) , and spring wheat area. But early spring condition reports suggest only a modest year over year increase in US wheat production for the 2023 crop year. March area data and our early spring Read more…
USDA’s March planting survey found US farmers intending to plant about the same number of acres to soybeans as was seeded in 2022. The stated number of soybean acres would produce a US soybean crop of 4.4 billion bushels assuming trend yield. Comparative data is included in the accompanying table Read more…
USDA’s March planting survey found USS farmers intending to plant 92 million acres to corn this season compared to 89.5 million acres in 2022. We have estimated trend yield at 180 bushels and a trend yield 2023 corn crop at 14.9 billion bushels. The comparative data is displayed in the Read more…
USDA reported a slight year over year increase in the US market hog inventory as of 3/1/2023. US barrow & gilt slaughter over the next six months will likely be within plus or minus one percent of the year earlier level based on past experience and assuming live hog imports Read more…
We estimate the US hog inventory on March 1, 2023 at 75 million head, up 2% from the previous count. We have based our assumption for the December/February pig crop, which is the major unknown in calculating the first quarter hog balance, on USDA’s December sows farrowing survey and trend Read more…
The number of cattle in US feedlots declined 4% over the last year. January 2023 net feeder cattle placements were down 4% year over year while finished cattle marketings last month were 4% larger than in the same month a year earlier. Recent feedlot activity suggests finished cattle sales over Read more…
August live cattle appear to have significant upside potential based on the latest supply/usage forecasts from USDA. We present the results of a cattle price forecast model which uses US beef production and exports combined with the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to project a late winter through summer price Read more…
Historically August lean hog values have been closely associated with summer pork production, pork exports and the US gross domestic economic income. The GDI contains both real economic growth and inflation. We have assumed a 2% growth rate in real incomes and a 5% inflation rate for GDI. The summer Read more…
US farmers are likely to increase corn planted area in 2023 despite increased production costs. Corn at current old crop prices provide favorable returns to land after deducting variable costs data as provided by USDA. Corn returns also hold an edge to the same calculation for Midwest soybean farmers.. Read more…
Historically, soybean prices relative to corn returns, combined with past acreage trends. has accounted for 93% of the variation in the March soybean planted area survey forecast. Plugging in this year’s soybean and corn values results in a 88.9 million acre planted area forecast compared to the March survey soybean Read more…
This month USDA forecast the 2022/2023 US soybean carryout at 225 million bushels or 5% of crop year Usage. July soybean meal futures prices have advanced more than declined in 13 of 15 years (since 1970) in which USDA forecast a 8% or less US soybean carryout to usage ratio Read more…
USDA reported the potential feeder cattle dropped by one million head over the last year. We have scattered the price range for the June finished cattle contract as a function of the potential feeder supply. The projected price range is the same as we provided in our January 25, 2023 Read more…
June hog futures prices have advanced more than declined in 15 of 24 years in which the preceding year *year t) pig crop was less than the previous year’s (year t-1) level. In December USDA estimated the June 2022 to November 2022 pig crop at 67.2 million head compared to Read more…
July Soybean Conditioned Seasonal This month the USDA forecast the 2022/2023 US soybean carryout at 210 million bushels or 5% of crop year usage (crush + exports + seed). July soybeans prices have advanced more than declined in 14 of 15 years in which the USDA’s January carryout to usage Read more…
Bullish Seasonal for July Corn This month the USDA forecast the 2023 US corn carryover at 1.2 billion bushels or 14% of crop year FSI usage plus crop year exports. July corn has advanced more than declined in 8 of 11 years (since 1971) in which the defined ratio was Read more…
This month USDA projected a 4% reduction in the domestically produced per capita beef supply for the first half of 2023. We have scattered the June live cattle winter-spring high and low (adjusted for inflation) as a function of the US domestic per capita beef supply in the first half Read more…
This month USDA forecast the 2022/2023 crop year US soybean carryout at 210 million bushels or 4.8% of crop year usage. July soybean oil has advanced more than declined in 8 of 9 years in which the USDA January US soybean carryout forecast was less than 6% of estimated crop Read more…
USDA reported the number of cattle in US feedlots January 1 totaled 11.7 million head or 3% fewer than at the same time a year ago. Net feeder cattle placements declined 8% year over year in December 2022 while finished cattle sales last month declined 6% compared to marketings in Read more…
The USDA forecasts the first half 2023 hog prices @ farm level at $68 compared to the $71 realized in the first half of 2022. We have constructed two scatter studies with the high and low for April hogs as a function of the average price for hogs at farm Read more…
The USDA has forecast the 2023 average price for finished steers in Nebraska at $159 based on US domestic per capita beef supply of 56 pounds, the tightest supply since 2016. We have scattered the high and low month for finished steer values as a function of the per capita Read more…