This month USDA forecast the 2022/2023 crop year US soybean carryout at 210 million bushels or 4.8% of crop year usage. July soybean oil has advanced more than declined in 8 of 9 years in which the USDA January US soybean carryout forecast was less than 6% of estimated crop Read more…
USDA reported the number of cattle in US feedlots January 1 totaled 11.7 million head or 3% fewer than at the same time a year ago. Net feeder cattle placements declined 8% year over year in December 2022 while finished cattle sales last month declined 6% compared to marketings in Read more…
The USDA forecasts the first half 2023 hog prices @ farm level at $68 compared to the $71 realized in the first half of 2022. We have constructed two scatter studies with the high and low for April hogs as a function of the average price for hogs at farm Read more…
The USDA has forecast the 2023 average price for finished steers in Nebraska at $159 based on US domestic per capita beef supply of 56 pounds, the tightest supply since 2016. We have scattered the high and low month for finished steer values as a function of the per capita Read more…
Historically, the new crop (this year December 2023) old crop (July 2023) corn spread has been associated with the quantity of corn to be carried into the new crop year. This month the USDA forecast the 2022/2023 crop year US corn carryout at 1.2 billion bushels compared to the 1.4 Read more…
USDA estimated area seeded to winter wheat last autumn (for harvest this summer) totaled 37 million acres compared to the 33 million acres sown in the fall of 2021. The 2023 winter wheat crop was in poor to fair condition as of mid January 2023. We project next summer’s winter Read more…
Historically, the new crop soybean (November 2023) – old crop soybean (July 2023) spread has been correlated with USDA’s January assessment of the old crop US soybean supply/usage balance. This month USDA forecast a 210 million bushel 2022/2023 crop year carryout stocks or just 5% of crop year soybean crush Read more…
Soybean crop development in Brazil and Argentina during the austral summer will likely hold traders’ attention through the next few months. USDA expects the combined crop in the Southern Hemisphere will be much larger than the 2022 US soybean crop. So far weather has been less than favorable in Argentina, Read more…
The May Chicago wheat winter/spring price range is projected at a conservative $7 to $10 per bushel assuming USDA sticks to the old crop (2022/2023) US wheat supply/usage balance as forecast in the December 2022 WASDE report. We have scattered the historic (years ending in 2008 through 2022 and the Read more…
We calculate the US cattle inventory declined 2+% this year., to the smallest herd since 2015. Favorable feeder cattle returns have drawn heifers into feedlots rather than rebuild the breeding herd. . The need to rebuild the US cattle herd and ensure adequate beef supplies beyond 2023 will likely be Read more…
USDA reported the US hog herd inventory on December 1 was down 2% year over year and the smallest since 2016. The market hog inventory was also down 2% from a year ago. We have charted our forecast for first half 2023 FIS barrow & Gilt slaughter based on the Read more…
Cattle net placements fell short of finished cattle sales in November 2022 which is unusual for the fall months. Cattle on feed data suggest a 5% decline in fat cattle marketings over the next six months.
We estimate December 1, 2022 US wheat stocks at 1.3 billion bushels compared to 1.4 billion bushels a year ago and the smallest stocks this century . The major unknown in the second quarter US wheat supply/usage balance calculation is the feed residual for September/November. We have prorated the USDA’s Read more…
We estimate December 1, 2022 US corn stocks at 12.1 billion bushels compared to 11.5 billion bushels a year ago. The major unknown in the first quarter US corn supply/usage balance calculation is the feed residual for September/November. We have prorated the USDA’s 2022/23 crop year total feed/residual estimate of Read more…
April 2023 hog futures appear to have modest upside potential based on the USDA’s latest pork production forecast. April hog futures prices have displayed a 20% advantage to the upside from late December into the January/March period over the past 40+ years. We have scattered April hog futures prices as Read more…
March soybean oil and March corn have maintained a close correlation over the past 50 years. Currently, soybean oil is trading on the high side of the price of corn. Both March soybean oil and March corn futures prices have a bullish bias (a 20% advantage of bull years over Read more…
The outlook for a huge increase in South American soybean production is the major bearish force in the soybean complex futures market. We have charted the USDA’s December 2022 forecast for the 2022/2023 South American season. Important points include … …The expected South American soybean crop is much larger than Read more…
USDA has forecast a sharp reduction in US beef production in 2023 based on the reduction in cattle inventories that has been evident over the last three years. We have constructed a table displaying cattle slaughter and beef production by quarter. Our forecast yields a slightly larger beef production forecast Read more…
We calculate the US hog inventory on December 1 at 73 million head which would be the smallest hog census for that date since 2016. High feed costs and market uncertainty have so far blunted a possible upturn in the hog inventory cycle. The December 2022 Hogs and Pigs report Read more…
Feeder cattle placements continued a long term downtrend in November while finished cattle sales increased 1% in October compared to the same month a year ago. The balance left November 1 US cattle on feed at the lowest level in four years. US prospective beef supplies will need to be Read more…