Based on the USDA’ recent March Planting Intention survey US wheat production will likely decline this season unless growing conditions prove exceptionally favorable. We project 2025 production at 1.87 billion bushels, a 5% decline from a year ago. We have 2025 projected yield and percent harvested based on the average Read more…
The March 2025 Planting Intention Survey found farmers planning to plant 95.3 million acres to corn this season, a 5% increase from a year ago. In the last 50+ years the June corn acreage estimate has displayed a 96% correlation with the March survey forecast with a standard error of Read more…
US soybean area will be 4% smaller this season based on results of the March Prospective planting survey. We have worked through the production table with a bottom line of a 2025 US soybean crop of 4.3 billion bushels versus 4.4 billion in 2024. Over the last 60 years the Read more…
USDA reported the US hog inventory on March 1, 2025 at 74.5 million head, down fractionally from a year ago. Hog producers have displayed little inclination to expand production as both breeding hog numbers and the farrow intentions survey were down about 1% from the report in 2024. Hog farmers Read more…
March 1 US stocks are estimated at 8.04 billion bushels, down 4% from a year ago. Most of quarterly usage is known from weekly or monthly data. But the March inventory provides an estimate of the feed usage so far this crop year. The 2025 March Grain Stocks report is Read more…
US net feeder cattle placements on a per day basis in February 2025 dropped 16% last month compared to the same month a year ago. February 2025 per day marketing decline 15% relative to the same data in 2024. We calculate US beef production will drop 4% in 2025 on Read more…
US unshipped soybean export commitments totaled 242 million bushels in Mid March, an improvement compared to a year ago, but on the small side compared to most recent years. Importers, especially China, expect plentiful South American supplies from the 2025 soybean crop now being harvested. However, US soybean product sales Read more…
USDA estimates the 2025 South American soybean crop at 8.7 billion bushels, up from 8.1 billion bushels a year ago. The South American soybean harvest is now under way. USDA projects South American soybean net exports will increase modestly in the 2024/25 crop year with crush and carryout stocks both Read more…
The USDA reduced the 2025 US pork production estimate this month but still expects a modest increase for the year as a whole. Hog slaughter has trailed the USDA earlier forecast based on daily FIS slaughter data. US Pork Supply (Million Pounds) Annual 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 % Change Read more…
USDA did not make any changes to the corn old crop corn S/D forecast this month but did cut the US sorghum export forecast for the 2024/25 crop year. Sorghum exports are now expected to be barely one third of the USDA’ s forecast at the beginning of the season. Sorghum Read more…
The USDA has scheduled the 2025 March Prospective Plantings report for March 31, 2025. Our economic model suggests a 1% increase in corn area for 2025, a 3% reduction in soybean planted acres and a 2% increase in wheat area. USDA’s baseline forecast suggests a 3% increase in sorghum plantings Read more…
We estimate all hogs and pigs in the US on March 1,2025 were just one half percent larger than a year ago. Our March inventory calculation assumed USDA’s winter sow farrowing forecast derived from data obtained in the December 2024 US hog census and a trend of pigs saved per Read more…
We estimate March 1 US soybean stocks at 1.95 billion bushels compared to 1.85 billion bushels a year earlier. The US soybean crush level ran at a record pace this winter helped by strong soybean meal export demand. Soybean exports exceeded the previous year but will drop off sharply this Read more…
We estimate US wheat stocks on March 1 at 1.2 billion bushels compared to 1.1 billion bushels a year ago. The ratio of stocks to June/February usage (excluding feed residual) was calculated at 83% compared to 87% at the same point a year ago. We have included a scatter study Read more…
We estimate March 1, 2025 US corn stocks were four percent smaller on a year over year basis. The ratio of US March corn stocks to September/May usage dropped to 93% versus 100% in 2024. But stocks are not as tight as the period from 2011 through 2013 which were Read more…
US wheat carryout stocks will likely increase during the 2025/2026 crop year assuming USDA’s National average trend line wheat yield forecast. Through mid February there were winter wheat areas reporting drier than normal conditions, but the acreage affected and the severity don’t yet suggest a yield significantly below the USDA Read more…
USDA did not make any changes to the 2024/25 US soybean balance table this month. USDA did revise down the 2025 Argentine soybean crop by three million tonnes but left the Brazilian crop unchanged. The aggregate South American (Brazil, Argentina & Paraguay) 2025 soybean crop (harvest of which will run Read more…
In this month’s WASDE report USDA forecast a 3% year over year increase in US pork production in 2025. The per capita domestic pork supply is projected to increase 2% in 2025 compared to that available in 2024. US Pork Supply (Million Pounds) Annual 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 % Read more…
USDA did not change the US corn crop, year 2024/25 supply/usage balance this month but did reduce prospective US sorghum exports sharply and added the reduction to domestic sorghum feed usage. The sorghum supply/demand balance is small compared to the corn balance but this month’s sorghum changes were not reflected Read more…
USDA reported US feeder cattle numbers on January 1, 2025 were up slightly from the year earlier level. The August feeder cattle contract is trading on the high of the recent price/supply function, but not far out of line with the August live cattle contract. Both contract values could struggle Read more…