August Lean Hogs Price Forecast – 02/12/2024

USDA has been steadily increasing the pork production projection for the first half of 2024, USDA has kept the second half of 2024 US pork production projection at a steady +3 to 4% year over year increase. We have fitted a model using the late winter through summer price range for August hogs as a function of  US third quarter pork production and exports  and real US gross domestic production. The model has a 90% R2 with a standard error of +- $7 per Cwt.

Plugging in USDA’s February 2024 projections results in a $87 to $116 per hundredweight February through August  range price forecast  for August 2024 lean hogs. Our forecast is more optimistic than the all historical years seasonal for August lean hogs of $83 to $108.  

 The March Hogs and Pigs Survey, scheduled for release March 28, 2024, will contain important guidance for the second half of 2024 US pork supplies.