August Crop Report Comments Soybeans – 08/13/2023
USDA dropped the US soybean national average yield to 50 bushels per harvested acre compared the trendline July forecast of 52 bushels. The yield downgrade was in line with sub average weekly USDA crop reports. In the years 1965 through 2022 the August yield estimate has had a 94% correlation and a standard error of 2 bushels when regressed with the final estimate (made in January). Favorable August weather suggests a modest increase in US soybean yield estimates this autumn.
USDA expects a 245 million bushel new crop (2023/24) US soybean carryout or close to 6% of usage. USDA expects strong domestic soybean usage in 2023/24 based on an increase in domestic soybean meal demand and an increase in soybean oil consumption both as food and fuel. But new crop US soybean export demand is likely to decline unless the outlook for a giant Brazilian soybean crop to be harvested next spring (Austral autumn) changes. The current phase of the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle (El Nino) sets the stage for a favorable Brazilian growing season (October 2023 through March 2024).
| US Soybean S/D Million acres / Bushels | ||||
| 2020/2021 | 2021/2022 | 2022/2023 | 2023/2024 | |
| Area Planted | 83.4 | 87.2 | 87.5 | 83.5 |
| Area Harvested | 82.6 | 86.3 | 86.3 | 82.7 |
| Yield per Harvested Acre | 51.0 | 51.7 | 49.5 | 50.9 |
| Beginning Stocks | 525 | 257 | 274 | 260 |
| Production | 4216 | 4465 | 4276 | 4205 |
| Imports | 20 | 16 | 30 | 30 |
| Supply, Total | 4761 | 4738 | 4581 | 4496 |
| Crushings | 2141 | 2204 | 2220 | 2300 |
| Exports | 2266 | 2158 | 1980 | 1825 |
| Seed | 101 | 102 | 97 | 101 |
| Residual | -4 | 1 | 23 | 25 |
| Use, Total | 4504 | 4464 | 4320 | 4251 |
| Ending Stocks | 257 | 274 | 260 | 245 |
| % Use | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% |
| USDA August 2023 WASDE Report | ||||
We have scattered the November soybean contract historic harvest price range as a function of the USDA’s harvest time new crop US soybean carryout to crop year usage ratio. The USDA’ current 6% ratio would suggest a $12 to $14 price range for November soybeans during harvest.
Note November price points for 2023 based on the close of trading 8/11/2023.