Argentine Soybean Prospects Weigh on Soybean Meal FuturesPrices – 01/22/2024

USDA boosted the 2024 projection for Argentine soybean production to 50 million metric tons, up two million tonnes from the December forecast and double the very small 2023 soybean crop of just 25 million tonnes. Argentina has an outsized impact on the world soybean meal market because domestic consumption is small leaving the bulk  of soybean meal production available for export. USDA projects Argentine soybean meal exports for the 2023/2024 domestic marketing year at 24 million tonnes compared to 21 million tonnes a year ago.  

USDA currently forecasts 2023/24 US soybean meal exports at a record large 15.3 million short tons which appears a little optimistic based on US meal sales to date and the prospect for increased Argentine soybean meal availability this Northern Hemisphere summer and autumn.