Argentine Soybean Crop Will likely fall short of the USDA December Estimate – 01/05/21

Dry weather appears to be damaging the new Argentine soybean crop. Last month USDA forecast the crop at 49.5 million tonnes or about 1.8 billion bushels. A what if analysis based on the 2011/2012 austral crop year would put the 2022 yield at 2.3 tonnes per hectare versus the December estimate of 3.02 tonnes and a total soybean crop of 37.7 million tonnes  or 1.4 billion bushels. In comparison the gap in production would easily exceed USDA’s current US soybean carryout forecast.