April Hog Price Outlook – 12/19/2022

April 2023 hog futures appear to have modest upside potential based on the USDA’s  latest pork production forecast. April hog futures prices have displayed a 20% advantage to the upside from late December into the January/March period  over the past 40+ years.

We have scattered April hog futures prices as a function of the domestic per capita pork supply in the April/June period. The upside potential is modest, but of more interest when paired with the historical bullish seasonal bias for April live hog futures prices.  

A conservative reading of the scatter would suggest a high of $105 for April futures.