Analysis of The Summer Hog Market – 05/09/2022

August hogs are trading near the bottom of the recent trading range. Summer  hog futures are correlated with the March lightweight hog inventory as expressed in the USDA’s March hog census. The accompanying scatter studies display the change in the summer high and low for August hogs as a function of the change in pig numbers under 50 pounds on March 1. This year the inventory data was down about 100 thousand head which would imply a trading range for August hogs between $100 to $125. On 5/09/2022 August hogs closed at $104. 

Red point represents the close on 5/9/2022 and the USDA’s March estimate for the lightweight hog inventory on March 1, 2022.