Adjusted US Corn S/D Following Grain Stocks Report – 9/30/2022

The Quarterly grain stocks report estimated September 1 US corn stocks at 1.38 billion bushels, significantly less than the 1.53 billion bushels  estimated in the last WASDE report. The difference implies old crop feed usage was stronger than expected and the USDA’s feed/residual forecast for crop year 2022/2023  is too small. We don’t have evidence that the 2022 corn crop is much larger than that projected in the September Crop Report, leaving a likely cut back in exports or industrial use to insure a minimum pipeline corn  carryout in 2023.

S/D table based on September WASDE report adjusted by quarterly stocks data published on September 30.