A Midsummer update on the Corn Market-07/24/2023
USDA reported 57% of the corn crop in good or excellent condition on 7/23/2034 compared to the 37-year average 63% in the same week. History suggests a US national average yield of 176 bushels per harvested acre compared to the USDA July trendline yield forecast of 177.5 bushels per acre. Silking has reached 68% leaving 30%+ of the corn crop still vulnerable to above normal temperatures.
Ukraine provides the a major uncertainty in the new crop (2023/2024) corn export picture. In our what if US corn supply/usage balance we have assumed half the 780+ million bushels of corn USDA forecast Ukraine would export in 2023/2024 would be filled by the US. The total will likely be less, but accounting for problems in Ukraine provides a handle on the impact on the US corn balance.
The USDA is scheduled to release the August crop report and a revised US Corn Balance for August 11,2023.
| US Corn Supply/Usage Million Bushels acres | ||||
| 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2023/24 | |
| USDA July | What if | |||
| Area Planted | 93.3 | 88.6 | 94.1 | 94.1 |
| Area Harvested | 85.3 | 79.2 | 86.3 | 86.3 |
| Yield per Harvested Acre | 176.7 | 173.3 | 177.5 | 176.0 |
| Beginning Stocks | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,402 | 1,402 |
| Production | 15,074 | 13,730 | 15,320 | 15,189 |
| Imports | 24 | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| Supply, Total | 16,333 | 15,132 | 16,747 | 16,616 |
| Feed and Residual | 5,721 | 5,425 | 5,650 | 5,650 |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 6,764 | 6,655 | 6,735 | 6,735 |
| Ethanol & by-products | 5,326 | 5,225 | 5,300 | 5,300 |
| Domestic, Total | 12,484 | 12,080 | 12,385 | 12,385 |
| Exports | 2,471 | 1,650 | 2,100 | 2,450 |
| Use, Total | 14,956 | 13,730 | 14,485 | 14,835 |
| Ending Stocks | 1,377 | 1,402 | 2,262 | 1,781 |
| Carryout/Usage* | 15% | 17% | 26% | 19% |
| * Excluding Feed Residual, July 2023 USDA Estimate & Projected New Crop |
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