A look at Old Crop US Soybean Exports – 04/28/2023

USDA estimates old crop US soybean exports at 2.015 billion bushels. Recent soybean sales data suggest the USDA estimate may be optimistic. The accompanying chart and scatter study display indicates soybean sales are well behind previous years and the sales pace needed to make USDA’s current 2022/2023 export forecast. A large Brazilian soybean crop has favored purchasing soybeans needed this summer of South American origin. Except for the unlikely combination of collapse of the old crop/new crop soybean futures price spread and a significant weather market rally. foreign buyers will wait for US new crop soybeans to cover fall-winter needs. 

USDA is likely to reduce the old crop soybean export estimate in the next WASDE report May 13, 2023.

The red point is based on 4/20/23 sales and USDA ; old crop export estimate.

The US soybean meal exports sales outlook is brighter than for the raw product because of the poor Argentine 2023 soybean crop. Most of the Argentine soybean crop is exported as meal and soybean oil.