Hog Price & Pork Production forecast Based on The March Hogs & Pigs Report
USDA reported the US hog inventory on March 1, 2025 at 74.5 million head, down fractionally from a year ago. Hog producers have displayed little inclination to expand production as both breeding hog numbers and the farrow intentions survey were down about 1% from the report in 2024. Hog farmers do continue the trend to improved technology as evidenced by a strong increase in the number of pigs saved per litter.
| US Data needed to Forecast Commercial Hog Slaughter And Pork Production Thousand Head & Million Pounds | ||||||
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Percent | ||
|
March Market Hogs
|
66,111 | 66,734 | 68,556 | 68,532 | 0.0% | |
| Net Imports | 4828 | 5021 | 4859 | 5,000 | 2.9% | |
| March May Pig Crop | 32,635 | 33,414 | 33,743 | 33,901 | 0.5% | |
| Commercial | ||||||
| Slaughter | 93,713 | 95,351 | 96,859 | 97,367 | 0.5% | |
| Weights Pounds | 214 | 212 | 214 | 213 | ||
| Pork Production (million Pounds) | 20,081 | 20,220 | 20,687 | 20,739 | 0.3% | |
| Our estimates for 2025 Data is as originally published | ||||||
| CME August Hogs April/August Price Range $$$$$$$$ | ||||||
| High | $124 | $105 | $108 | $119 | 10.6% | |
| Low | $99 | $73 | $84 | $93 | 10.4% | |
Our August lean hog model projects an April – August 2025 price range of $93 to $119 compared to the range so far in 2025 of a rounded $93 to $105. Our study has a standard error of $8 per hundredweight. On March 28, 2025 August lean hogs were trading near $96.
USDA forecasts hog prices at farm level. The March WASDE forecast the farm level July/September average at $68 versus only $64 in the third quarter of 2024. USDA’s price projection supports our August 2025 CME price forecast, but of course both could be off the mark.
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