USDA March S/D US corn – Sorghum Forecast slightly Bearish
USDA did not make any changes to the corn old crop corn S/D forecast this month but did cut the US sorghum export forecast for the 2024/25 crop year. Sorghum exports are now expected to be barely one third of the USDA’ s forecast at the beginning of the season. Sorghum not needed for exports could be used for domestic feed and replace corn.
| US Corn Supply/Usage Million Bushels & acres | |||
| 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | |
| 3/11/25 | |||
| Area Planted | 88.2 | 94.6 | 90.6 |
| Area Harvested | 78.7 | 86.5 | 82.9 |
| Yield per Harv. Ac. | 173.4 | 177.3 | 179 |
| Beginning Stocks | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,763 |
| Production | 13,651 | 15,341 | 14,867 |
| Imports | 39 | 28 | 25 |
| Supply, Total | 15,066 | 16,729 | 16,655 |
| Feed and Residual | 5,486 | 5,805 | 5,775 |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 6,558 | 6,868 | 6,890 |
| Ethanol & by-products | 5,176 | 5,478 | 5,500 |
| Domestic, Total | 12,044 | 12,673 | 12,665 |
| Exports | 1,662 | 2,292 | 2,450 |
| Use, Total | 13,706 | 14,966 | 15,115 |
| Ending Stocks | 1,360 | 1,763 | 1,540 |
| Carryout/Usage | 10% | 12% | 10% |
| Farm Price | $6.54 | $4.55 | $4.35 |
| March 2025 USDA data. Carryout % crop year usage. | |||
We have included scatter studies displaying the high and low range for the July 2025 corn contract as a function of the US old crop corn carryout as a percentage of crop year usage. The points for 2025 are based on the winter price range to provide a frame of reference.
Based on USDA’s old crop corn supply/usage balance the July 2025 corn contract would be expected to make a spring high exceeding the winter maximum price of $5.21 and a spring early summer low exceeding the recent low of $4.52.
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