USDA Prospective Plantings Report
The USDA has scheduled the 2025 March Prospective Plantings report for March 31, 2025. Our economic model suggests a 1% increase in corn area for 2025, a 3% reduction in soybean planted acres and a 2% increase in wheat area. USDA’s baseline forecast suggests a 3% increase in sorghum plantings and a 2% reduction in upland cotton acres. We have incorporated the USDA January winter wheat area estimate in our calculations.
The soybean/corn price ratio this year has shifted in favor of corn. None of the major field crops is particularly profitable at early March 2025 price levels. For example, the ratio of US farm crops received index to the crop cost index was only 63% last month compared to the previous three year average of 80% for January. Nevertheless our model projections and USDA baseline forecasts suggest the major crop planted area in 2025 will be just fractionally less than that planted in 2024.
| US Planted Area Forecast (Thousand Acres) | ||||
| USDA Baseline | Our Forecast** | |||
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 | |
| Corn | 94,641 | 90,594 | 92,000 | 91,475 |
| Soybeans | 83,600 | 87,050 | 85,000 | 84,645 |
| All Wheat | 49,575 | 46,180 | 46,000 | 46,915 |
| Sorghum* | 7,200 | 6,300 | 6,500 | 6,500 |
| Upland Cotton* | 10,100 | 11,000 | 10,800 | 10,800 |
| Total | 245,116 | 241,124 | 240,300 | 240,335 |
| * USDA baseline for Sorghum & Cotton carried into our 2025 column | ||||
| **Our projections for 2025. | ||||
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