USDA forecast an Increase in US Pork Supply
In this month’s WASDE report USDA forecast a 3% year over year increase in US pork production in 2025. The per capita domestic pork supply is projected to increase 2% in 2025 compared to that available in 2024.
| US Pork Supply (Million Pounds) | ||||||
| Annual | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | % Change |
| Beg Stock | 467 | 446 | 504 | 471 | 440 | |
| Production | 27,690 | 27,009 | 27,316 | 27805 | 28,545 | 3% |
| Imports | 904 | 1,344 | 1,143 | 1148 | 1,170 | 2% |
| Exports | 7,026 | 6,338 | 6,818 | 7115 | 7,295 | 3% |
| End Stocks | 446 | 504 | 471 | 440 | 430 | -2% |
| Per Cap | 51.1 | 51.1 | 50.2 | 50.4 | 51.4 | 2% |
| Farm Price | $68 | $73 | $63 | $62 | $64 | 4% |
| USDA February 2025 Data | ||||||
| June CME Lean hog Futures Winter/spring Price Range | ||||||
| High | $123 | $127 | $106 | $110 | $113 | |
| Low | $91 | $97 | $75 | $91 | $94 | |
USDA’s 2025 pork production estimate for 2025 seems ambitious as weekly cumulative data since January 1 was fractionally off from a year earlier. And farrowing intentions data do not suggest a significant increase in market hogs available until late this autumn.
Regarding CME June live hog futures, a combined seasonal & economic approach suggests a price range from mid February through 2025 contract expiration of $94 to $113 per hundredweight. USDA forecasts a 4% increase in 2025 annual live hog prices at farm level.
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