Summer Feeder Cattle Contracts on the High End of Range?
USDA reported US feeder cattle numbers on January 1, 2025 were up slightly from the year earlier level. The August feeder cattle contract is trading on the high of the recent price/supply function, but not far out of line with the August live cattle contract. Both contract values could struggle into the summer. Holding heifers for breeding to expand the US cattle herd, which effectively tightens the feeder cattle supply and will likely be the dominant bullish force in the cattle market this summer.
| Feeder cattle supply outside feedlots 000 head | |||||
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Percent | ||
| Calves under 500 lbs | 13,658 | 13,285 | 13,458 | 1.3% | |
|
Steers 500 lbs and over
|
16,057 | 15,789 | 15,802 | 0.1% | |
|
Heifers 500 lbs and over
|
9,758 | 9,566 | 9,593 | 0.3% | |
| Total | 39,472 | 38,639 | 38,854 | 0.6% | |
| On feed Jan 1: | 14,196 | 14,423 | 14,297 | -0.9% | |
| Feeder cattle outside | |||||
| feedlots on Jan 1 | 25,276 | 24,216 | 24,557 | 1.4% | |
Note we have marked the high and low scatter point for 2025 with trade quotes for CME August feeder cattle on February 11, 2025 .
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