July 2025 Corn likely Trading over $5.50

 The July 2025 corn futures contract made a harvest low $4.52 and is currently trading just under $5.00 or 10% over the harvest low. In the past 57 years the winter/early spring high has averaged 25% over the harvest low or the equivalent of $5.58. Regressing the July corn high against the US corn carryout stocks/usage  ratio results in a $5.65 point forecast assuming USDA’s current supply/usage estimates for the 2024/25 crop year. Both methodologies have a standard error of $.85.

Point:

History suggests it is too soon to be selling into the current corn futures price rally  with a possible top exceeding current trading levels by at least $.50