US Cattle on Feed Down Marginally
USDA reported the number of cattle on feed January 1 declined 1% from a year ago. We have calculated a ratio of cattle in feedlots as a percentage of all cattle. The January 1 , 2025 ratio was 16.6% compared to 16.5 last year and and the modern record high. Both finished cattle and feeders are trading at record levels as the market struggles to choke off feeders sold to feedlots to accumulate females for breeding and accomplish herd expansion. The USDA has scheduled the release of results of the January 1, 2025 US cattle census on 01/31/2025 which may provide additional guidance to cattle complex traders and ranchers.
As we mentioned, cattle prices have risen to record levels. Calling a top to a record market is very difficult because by definition historical data is lacking upon which to make forecasts. We did perform a procedure examining the annual max value for cash cattle relative to the previous three year low lagged one year. The experiment resulted in a high value for finished steers in Nebraska during 2025.of $212 per hundredweight. The December CME live cattle futures price range is tightly correlated with cash quotes but , in most years, discounted to cash.
| Finished Cattle Annual Price Range $/Cwt. | ||||
| Cash Nebraska | December Live Futures Contract | |||
| Year | High | Low | High | Low |
| 2011 | $126 | $104 | $126 | $111 |
| 2012 | $130 | $113 | $136 | $122 |
| 2013 | $134 | $119 | $137 | $123 |
| 2014 | $173 | $137 | $172 | $132 |
| 2015 | $171 | $117 | $158 | $117 |
| 2016 | $139 | $98 | $126 | $96 |
| 2017 | $144 | $104 | $128 | $100 |
| 2018 | $128 | $106 | $120 | $107 |
| 2019 | $128 | $97 | $124 | $98 |
| 2020 | $124 | $92 | $122 | $89 |
| 2021 | $141 | $111 | $139 | $118 |
| 2022 | $157 | $135 | $155 | $142 |
| 2023 | $189 | $155 | $192 | $162 |
| 2024 | $197 | $173 | $194 | $173 |
| 2025 | $212 | |||
| Based on Nebraska steers January through December. | ||||
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