July Soybean Meal Futures Price range Projection
Historically US soybean meal prices have been tightly correlated with 1) the livestock price index and 2) the US soybean supply usage balance as represented by the ratio of the US carryout stocks to the crop year US soybean usage ratio.
This month USDA forecast the 2025 US soybean carryout at 380 million bushels which was less than 9% of forecast crop year usage of 4.35 billion bushels. We estimate the LPI (base 100=2011) during the September 2025 through August 2025 period at 148 versus 145 a year ago. A very tight cattle market will likely hold up values for the entire animal complex.
| US Soybean Meal Balance (Thousand Tons) | |||||
| 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2025%2024 | |
| Beginning Stocks | 341 | 311 | 371 | 453 | |
| Production | 51,814 | 52,493 | 54,145 | 56,947 | 5% |
| Imports | 649 | 634 | 687 | 675 | -2% |
| Supply, Total | 52,804 | 53,438 | 55,204 | 58,075 | 5% |
| Domestic Disappearance | 38,970 | 38,521 | 38,643 | 40,225 | 4% |
| Exports | 13,524 | 14,547 | 16,107 | 17,400 | 8% |
| Use, Total | 52,493 | 53,067 | 54,750 | 57,625 | 5% |
| Ending Stocks | 311 | 371 | 453 | 450 | |
| Crush (Million Bushels) January 2025 Data | |||||
| Oct/Sept | 2,207 | 2,219 | 2,299 | 2,410 | 5% |
| Meal Yield | 47.0 | 47.3 | 47.1 | 47.3 | |
| Avg. Price ($/s.t.) | $440 | $452 | $384 | $310 | -19% |
| Consumer Base September August High Protein Animal Units Millions & LPI | |||||
| LPI 2011=100 | 139 | 134 | 145 | 148 | |
| HPCAU (Mil.) | 154 | 154 | 154 | 155 | |
Our model forecasts a February 2025/June 2025 price range for July 2025 soybean meal of $402 to $480 , which is well above the $312 meal was trading on 01/17/2025. Considering only the USDA’s January 2025 US soybean balance would result in a $360 to $400 range which is still much more expensive than current quotes.
It is clear soybean meal traders view the upcoming large soybean harvest in the Southern hemisphere as a major bearish force in the soybean meal market. Our studies suggest the bearish outlook on the soybean meal futures market could be overdone and July 2025 soybean meal futures holding at the current low of $296 is a good bet.
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