USDA Projects an Increase in US Pork Production
This month USDA forecast a 3% increase in US pork production in 2025. The USDA’s assessment is ambitious as the US hog inventory on December 1, 2024 was up less than one percent from a year ago.
| US Pork Supply (Million Pounds) | ||||||
| Annual | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | % Change |
| Beg Stock | 467 | 446 | 504 | 471 | 435 | |
| Production | 27,690 | 27,009 | 27,316 | 27803 | 28,525 | 3% |
| Imports | 904 | 1,344 | 1,143 | 1147 | 1,140 | -1% |
| Exports | 7,026 | 6,338 | 6,818 | 7108 | 7,325 | 3% |
| End Stocks | 446 | 504 | 471 | 435 | 430 | -1% |
| Per Cap | 51.1 | 51.1 | 50.2 | 50.4 | 51.2 | 2% |
| Farm Price | $68 | $73 | $63 | $62 | $63 | 2% |
| USDA January 2025 Data | ||||||
| April CME Lean hog Futures Winter/spring Price Range | ||||||
| High | $104 | $113 | $97 | $92 | $96 | |
| Low | $70 | $84 | $72 | $72 | $77 | |
We have included the latest USDA US pork balance and our scatter studies displaying the winter/spring price range for the April lean hog contract as a function of the USDA’s January/June forecast for cash hogs (farm level). The USDA’s January 2025 cash hog price projection would suggest a range of $76 to $95 for the CME April lean hog contract. On 01/13/2025 the April contract closed at $89.55.
USDA’s work would suggest an aggressive bear stance whenever April hogs exceed $94, but a less positive 2025 pork production outlook would put expected highs over $100 per hundredweight..
0 Comments