Pork Cut Out Seasonal

The calculated price seasonal is a useful, although not definitive, metric for forecasting pork prices and lean hog futures spreads.The calculated seasonal pork cut out price is displayed in the accompanying chart. The cash pork cutout closed at $90.5 /Cwt. On 01/08/2025. Since the close is just above  the calculated January price the chart provides a straightforward seasonal price forecast  for the entire year of 2025. Note the seasonal low can be expected during the winter (January or February) and the high in July ($1.09).

Of course the pork cut provides is closely correlated with the lean hog futures contracts on the CME. The July – February lean hog futures spread closed at $ 20 per hundredweight on 01/08/2025 which is just $1.00 less than that suggested by the calculated seasonal (July $109 – February $79) . 

The calculations are based on monthly data provided by the USDA.