Box Beef Nearly Matches Summer 2021 Record

US box beef early January 2025 values are trading just under the record (except for the Covid distortion in 2020) set in the summer of 2021. Rising wholesale beef prices are the market accomplishing the function of rationing scarce beef supplies.

Cattlemen appear to have started the process of increasing the US cattle herd which requires sending fewer females to slaughter. It will be several years before the cattle complex returns to a more normal supply/demand balance.  It is possible current box values are already trading at the price that will balance cattle supply and demand. However it is more likely prices will need to advance. In the last (2010 to 2015) cycle, box beef prices rose 81% from bottom to top.  Box beef prices have advanced 54%.since the low of late 2020.