$500 plus Soybean Meal? – 02/16/2022

USDA trimmed the 2021/2022 crop year US soybean carryout forecast this month to 325 million bushels from the 350 million bushels expected last month  More importantly USDA also cut the South American 2022 soybean forecast to 185 million tonnes from the February forecast of 194 million tonnes. 

We have prepared a US soybean supply/usage table with the USDA’s February forecast and a what if column with the more bullish assumptions our analysis suggests based on the smaller South American soybean crop.  We have also included a scatter study displaying the winter spring high for cash soybean meal  as a function of the US soybean carryout to crop year usage ratio as forecast by USDA in the early summer. A high over $500 is forecast using both the USDA estimates  and our what if assumptions. Our assumptions would push soybean meal closer to $600.