We estimate US wheat stocks on March 1 at 1.2 billion bushels compared to 1.1 billion bushels a year ago. The ratio of stocks to June/February usage (excluding feed residual) was calculated at 83% compared to 87% at the same point a year ago. We have included a scatter study Read more…
We estimate March 1, 2025 US corn stocks were four percent smaller on a year over year basis. The ratio of US March corn stocks to September/May usage dropped to 93% versus 100% in 2024. But stocks are not as tight as the period from 2011 through 2013 which were Read more…
US wheat carryout stocks will likely increase during the 2025/2026 crop year assuming USDA’s National average trend line wheat yield forecast. Through mid February there were winter wheat areas reporting drier than normal conditions, but the acreage affected and the severity don’t yet suggest a yield significantly below the USDA Read more…
USDA did not make any changes to the 2024/25 US soybean balance table this month. USDA did revise down the 2025 Argentine soybean crop by three million tonnes but left the Brazilian crop unchanged. The aggregate South American (Brazil, Argentina & Paraguay) 2025 soybean crop (harvest of which will run Read more…
In this month’s WASDE report USDA forecast a 3% year over year increase in US pork production in 2025. The per capita domestic pork supply is projected to increase 2% in 2025 compared to that available in 2024. US Pork Supply (Million Pounds) Annual 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 % Read more…
USDA did not change the US corn crop, year 2024/25 supply/usage balance this month but did reduce prospective US sorghum exports sharply and added the reduction to domestic sorghum feed usage. The sorghum supply/demand balance is small compared to the corn balance but this month’s sorghum changes were not reflected Read more…
USDA reported US feeder cattle numbers on January 1, 2025 were up slightly from the year earlier level. The August feeder cattle contract is trading on the high of the recent price/supply function, but not far out of line with the August live cattle contract. Both contract values could struggle Read more…
USDA will provide any revisions it feels needed to the 2025 South American soybean crop estimates in the next WASDE report. Recent crop estimates other than USDA suggest the Argentine crop potential is declining while the Brazilian crop could exceed the USDA’s January forecast. The South American aggregate production could Read more…
USDA reported the number of cattle on farms and ranches January 1, 2025 at 86.7 million head, down 1% year or year and the sixth straight annual decline in US cattle numbers. We have calculated a breakout of possible cattle slaughter and an aggregate beef forecast for 2025. Our 3% Read more…