This month USDA forecast a two pound decline in the per capita 2024 US beef supply based on the production/usage data presented in the accompanying table. Of course the key number in the table is beef production which USDA expects to decline in 2024. USDA partially compensates for lower production Read more…
Historically, the November/September soybean spread has been closely correlated with the expected US soybean carryout (September 1 stocks). In the November WASDE report USDA forecast the 2024 US soybean carryout at 245 million bushels or just short of 6% of crop year usage. In recent years a carryout of less Read more…
USDA prepares farm level cash hog price forecasts each month. The accompanying scatter studies display the winter early spring April lean hog futures price range as a function of the winter-spring farm level cash hog value. The red point marked USDA is the USDA’s November 2023 price forecast. $60, and Read more…
Cattle on feed November 1, 2023 neared the record large set in November 2020 despite scarce feeder cattle supplies. Reduced finished cattle marketing and placing a larger share of available feeder cattle kept the on feedlot population surprisingly large last month. Earlier this month USDA forecast the 2024 per capita Read more…
In the November 2023 WASDE report USDA estimated the US wheat 2023/2024 crop year carryout stock at 684 million bushels, a 100 million bushel increase from a year ago, but still smaller than in the 2020/21 and 2021/22 crop years. USDA projected US wheat disappearance this season at 1.9 billion Read more…
The USDA forecast the per capita domestic pork supply for the first quarter of 2024 at 16.7 pounds, down 2% from a year ago. USDA expects first quarter pork production to be equal to a year ago, but a modest increase in pork exports and a increase in population will Read more…
Historically the price range for March soybean meal has been associated with the US soybean supply usage balance and export demand for soybean meal. We have derived two equations expressing the price range for March Soybean meal as a function of US soybean carryout stocks to crop year usage ratio Read more…
USDA has forecast 2023/24 crop year soybean exports at 1.775 billion bushels which is at the low end of recent year’s exports. The expectation of a large South American Soybean crop (to be harvested during the early Northern Hemisphere spring) will likely reduce demand for US soybeans. US soybean 2023/24 Read more…
USDA increased the estimate for 2023/2024 crop year US corn exports by 50 million bushels to 2075 million bushes this month. The US had sold 20 million tonnes of corn for new crop delivery by November 3, 2023 which is near the mid point of recent experience. The accompanying scatter Read more…
USDA increased the estimate of US 2023 corn production by nearly 200 million bushels this month, but also boosted the 2023/2024 crop year usage estimate with the November report estimate for the US corn 2024 carryover stocks estimate less than 50 million bushels larger than the October projection. The US Read more…
Declining ethanol prices have pressured corn ethanol margins, but the margin remains profitable compared to historical levels. The accompanying table displays the late harvest margin calculation for each of the last seven years. The recent drop in gasoline prices and increased seasonal production of ethanol has put pressure on ethanol Read more…
USDA rated 50% of the US winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition on November 5 which is much better than a year ago and near the midpoint of recent early November ratings. Three fourths of the winter wheat crop had emerged when the November 5 conditions were reported.
In the October 2023 WASDE report USDA forecast the new crop US soybean carryout at 220 million bushels or 5.3% of crop year usage which is close to a minimum pipeline supply. The accompanying scatter studies display the winter high and low for March soybeans as a function of the Read more…