USDA put the September 1 market hog inventory at 68 million head which is just fractionally larger than a year earlier. A regression study with October/March commercial hog slaughter as a function of original hog inventory data plus net live hog imports, suggests commercial hog slaughter over the next six Read more…
This month USDA projected the 2023/2024 US corn carryout at 2.2 billion bushels or 25% of crop year usage. The accompanying scatter study shows the low price for March corn as a function of the US corn carryout as a % of crop year usage. The ratio data uses the Read more…
US soybean export sales for 2023/2024 delivery are on the low side of recent history. Soybean importers are likely anticipating a large Southern Hemisphere soybean crop to fill February through August 2024 needs. The current strong El Nino reduces the risk of drought damaging the 2024 Brazilian soybean crop which Read more…
USDA expects a significant cut in US pork supply during the first quarter of 2024. We have correlated the February lean hog price range with January March per capita pork supply over the last 30+ years. Plugging in the USDA’s pork supply forecast would suggest an autumn winter price range Read more…
This month USDA projected the 2023/2024 crop year US soybean carryover at 220 million bushels or 5.3% of crop year usage. Historically the harvest low price for November soybeans has been correlated with the new crop carryover to usage ratio. The USDA’s current US soybean S/D would suggest a low Read more…
An ethanol price rally associated with higher gasoline prices and seasonal harvest pressure on corn values has pushed corn derived ethanol margins over $3.00 per bushel. Better ethanol processing margins could keep Midwest cash corn bids above $4.00 / bushel. A harvest low under $4.00, basis Midwest corn at farm Read more…
The number of cattle on feed likely declined last month. The high cost of feeder cattle replacements was the principal factor limiting cattle on feed activity. The need to hold back heifers to increase the cattle herd will likely keep both feeder cattle and finished cattle supplies tight through at Read more…
We calculate September US wheat stocks at 1.744 billion bushels would be the least since September data was available in the early 1970’s. Our estimate assumes the August US wheat production estimate which could be revised in the Small Grains Summary published in late September. As we discussed in an Read more…
There appears a significant chance the old crop US corn carryout (September 1 stocks) will fall short of USDA’s August 2023 estimate. USDA assumed 4th quarter (June/August) feed usage at 596 million bushels which would be the least since 2016. We have assumed feed usage at least 100 million bushels Read more…