USDA reported 55% of the corn crop was in good or excellent condition as of the end of July. Based on historical data the USDA’s weekly report suggests an August US average corn yield of 178 bushels per harvested acre compared to USDA’s July trendline forecast of 182 bushels. We Read more
US wheat export sales have lagged so far this season as domestic users have outbid exporters for limited US wheat supplies. Foreign wheat consumers have preferred to source wheat from other countries such Canada, Argentina and Australia. Ukraine wheat supplies available for export are uncertain as Russia may blockade Ukrainian Read more
Feeder cattle futures prices appeared to, at least temporarily, have stalled after a major winter – spring bull market. The accompanying scatter studies display autumn feeder cattle values (high & low range) as a function of the supply of feeder cattle on July 1. USDA data put the mid-year 2023 Read more
USDA reported 57% of the corn crop in good or excellent condition on 7/23/2034 compared to the 37-year average 63% in the same week. History suggests a US national average yield of 176 bushels per harvested acre compared to the USDA July trendline yield forecast of 177.5 bushels per acre. Read more
Cash hogs have displayed a strong negative price seasonal from summer into autumn over the last 50 years. Increased slaughter hog supplies in the autumn has driven the negative price seasonal. Currently December lean hogs are trading $24 discount to the August hog contract. The discount reflects aggregate trader’s expectation Read more
USDA reported cattle on feed July 1 totaled 11.5 million head compared to 11.7 million head a year ago. Feeder cattle placements over the last six months suggests finished cattle marketings in the July 2023 through December 2023 period will fall short at least 3% of finished cattle sales from Read more
USDA reported the July 1, 2023 US cattle inventory at 95.8 million head, down 3% from a year ago and the second fewest in the last 50 years. The ratio of July/December US beef production to inventory is displayed in the accompanying chart with 2023 based USDA projected data. Note Read more
December soybean meal could have significant upside potential based USDA’s current USDA new crop soybean supply/usage balance and July livestock projections The harvest price forecasts for December soybean meal, based on the US soybean carryout to usage ratio and the livestock price index (LPI). The US soybean S/D & livestock Read more
USDA cut the 2023/2024 US soybean carryout projection by 50 million bushels this month because of a smaller planted acre estimate published in June Acreage Survey report. USDA stayed with a national average soybean yield of 52 bushels per harvested acre. As we indicated in a previous post, the Read more
USDA soybean crop condition: The USDA rated 55% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition on July 16, 2023. This is a significant improvement over the previous week’s crop reports, which showed 51% of the crop in good or excellent condition. The improvement in crop condition is Read more
Last month the USDA forecast a record US soybean national average soybean yield of 52 bushels per harvested acre. However, in the week ending 7/2/2023, the USDA rated just 51% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition. This is significantly below the 35-year average of 66% for Read more
The USDA reported that 51% of the US corn crop is in good or excellent condition on 7/2/2023, which is below the 30+ year average of 66%. This is also below the 64% that was reported at the same time last year. In June, the USDA projected a national average Read more
USDA published relatively moderate changes to US wheat planted area estimates reflecting the June acreage survey. We have calculated the following wheat production table based on the June survey and the US wheat yield potential based on the weekly crop progress report. US Wheat Planted Read more
The USDA altered the US corn balance outlook for 2023/2024 by reporting a significant upward revision in corn planted area. The estimate of 94 million acres would be the largest area planted to corn in the US since 2013. We have worked through the projected new crop US corn balance Read more