June hog futures prices have advanced more than declined in 15 of 24 years in which the preceding year *year t) pig crop was less than the previous year’s (year t-1) level. In December USDA estimated the June 2022 to November 2022 pig crop at 67.2 million head compared to Read more…
July Soybean Conditioned Seasonal This month the USDA forecast the 2022/2023 US soybean carryout at 210 million bushels or 5% of crop year usage (crush + exports + seed). July soybeans prices have advanced more than declined in 14 of 15 years in which the USDA’s January carryout to usage Read more…
Bullish Seasonal for July Corn This month the USDA forecast the 2023 US corn carryover at 1.2 billion bushels or 14% of crop year FSI usage plus crop year exports. July corn has advanced more than declined in 8 of 11 years (since 1971) in which the defined ratio was Read more…
This month USDA projected a 4% reduction in the domestically produced per capita beef supply for the first half of 2023. We have scattered the June live cattle winter-spring high and low (adjusted for inflation) as a function of the US domestic per capita beef supply in the first half Read more…
This month USDA forecast the 2022/2023 crop year US soybean carryout at 210 million bushels or 4.8% of crop year usage. July soybean oil has advanced more than declined in 8 of 9 years in which the USDA January US soybean carryout forecast was less than 6% of estimated crop Read more…
USDA reported the number of cattle in US feedlots January 1 totaled 11.7 million head or 3% fewer than at the same time a year ago. Net feeder cattle placements declined 8% year over year in December 2022 while finished cattle sales last month declined 6% compared to marketings in Read more…
The USDA forecasts the first half 2023 hog prices @ farm level at $68 compared to the $71 realized in the first half of 2022. We have constructed two scatter studies with the high and low for April hogs as a function of the average price for hogs at farm Read more…
The USDA has forecast the 2023 average price for finished steers in Nebraska at $159 based on US domestic per capita beef supply of 56 pounds, the tightest supply since 2016. We have scattered the high and low month for finished steer values as a function of the per capita Read more…
Historically, the new crop (this year December 2023) old crop (July 2023) corn spread has been associated with the quantity of corn to be carried into the new crop year. This month the USDA forecast the 2022/2023 crop year US corn carryout at 1.2 billion bushels compared to the 1.4 Read more…
USDA estimated area seeded to winter wheat last autumn (for harvest this summer) totaled 37 million acres compared to the 33 million acres sown in the fall of 2021. The 2023 winter wheat crop was in poor to fair condition as of mid January 2023. We project next summer’s winter Read more…
Historically, the new crop soybean (November 2023) – old crop soybean (July 2023) spread has been correlated with USDA’s January assessment of the old crop US soybean supply/usage balance. This month USDA forecast a 210 million bushel 2022/2023 crop year carryout stocks or just 5% of crop year soybean crush Read more…
Soybean crop development in Brazil and Argentina during the austral summer will likely hold traders’ attention through the next few months. USDA expects the combined crop in the Southern Hemisphere will be much larger than the 2022 US soybean crop. So far weather has been less than favorable in Argentina, Read more…
The May Chicago wheat winter/spring price range is projected at a conservative $7 to $10 per bushel assuming USDA sticks to the old crop (2022/2023) US wheat supply/usage balance as forecast in the December 2022 WASDE report. We have scattered the historic (years ending in 2008 through 2022 and the Read more…