We calculate the US cattle inventory declined 2+% this year., to the smallest herd since 2015. Favorable feeder cattle returns have drawn heifers into feedlots rather than rebuild the breeding herd. . The need to rebuild the US cattle herd and ensure adequate beef supplies beyond 2023 will likely be Read more…
USDA reported the US hog herd inventory on December 1 was down 2% year over year and the smallest since 2016. The market hog inventory was also down 2% from a year ago. We have charted our forecast for first half 2023 FIS barrow & Gilt slaughter based on the Read more…
Cattle net placements fell short of finished cattle sales in November 2022 which is unusual for the fall months. Cattle on feed data suggest a 5% decline in fat cattle marketings over the next six months.
We estimate December 1, 2022 US wheat stocks at 1.3 billion bushels compared to 1.4 billion bushels a year ago and the smallest stocks this century . The major unknown in the second quarter US wheat supply/usage balance calculation is the feed residual for September/November. We have prorated the USDA’s Read more…
We estimate December 1, 2022 US corn stocks at 12.1 billion bushels compared to 11.5 billion bushels a year ago. The major unknown in the first quarter US corn supply/usage balance calculation is the feed residual for September/November. We have prorated the USDA’s 2022/23 crop year total feed/residual estimate of Read more…
April 2023 hog futures appear to have modest upside potential based on the USDA’s latest pork production forecast. April hog futures prices have displayed a 20% advantage to the upside from late December into the January/March period over the past 40+ years. We have scattered April hog futures prices as Read more…
March soybean oil and March corn have maintained a close correlation over the past 50 years. Currently, soybean oil is trading on the high side of the price of corn. Both March soybean oil and March corn futures prices have a bullish bias (a 20% advantage of bull years over Read more…
The outlook for a huge increase in South American soybean production is the major bearish force in the soybean complex futures market. We have charted the USDA’s December 2022 forecast for the 2022/2023 South American season. Important points include … …The expected South American soybean crop is much larger than Read more…
USDA has forecast a sharp reduction in US beef production in 2023 based on the reduction in cattle inventories that has been evident over the last three years. We have constructed a table displaying cattle slaughter and beef production by quarter. Our forecast yields a slightly larger beef production forecast Read more…