We calculate the US hog inventory on December 1 at 73 million head which would be the smallest hog census for that date since 2016. High feed costs and market uncertainty have so far blunted a possible upturn in the hog inventory cycle. The December 2022 Hogs and Pigs report Read more…
Feeder cattle placements continued a long term downtrend in November while finished cattle sales increased 1% in October compared to the same month a year ago. The balance left November 1 US cattle on feed at the lowest level in four years. US prospective beef supplies will need to be Read more…
This month USDA projected the 2022/2023 US soybean carryout at 200 million bushels compared to last year’s carryout November forecast of 205 million bushels and the final estimate for 2021/22 of 256 million bushels. The accompanying table displays high and low price forecasts for central Illinois soybeans based on alternative Read more…
This month USDA forecast the US domestic pork supply would increase 2% year over year in the First quarter of 2023. The accompanying table displays the forecast price range for February hogs based on alternative pork supply assumptions relative to USDA”s November projection. For example if supply matches USDA’ estimate Read more…
This month USDA estimated the US soybean carryout for the 2022/2023 crop year at 220 million bushels or 5% of crop year usage (excluding residual). We have scattered the December/March high for March soybean meal as a function of the US soybean carryout to usage ratio as forecast by USDA Read more…
Last month USDA forecast the 2022/2023 crop year US corn carryout at 1.17 billion bushels or 8% of crop year usage. In the last 50 years the US corn carryout to usage ratio has averaged 14%. Several factors suggest the US corn balance is tighter than suggested by USDA. USDA Read more…
The soybean crush margin is record wide due to strong soybean oil and meal demand. Soybean meal still accounts for a larger portion of the crush, but only by a small margin. Demand for soybean oil used in Bio Fuel has made a significant change in the crush balance. Wide Read more…