The USDA’s June Acreage Survey put 2022 US corn planted area at 89.9 million acres compared to the March survey of 89.4 million and planted area in 2021 of 93.4 million acres. In the June WASDE report USDA projected the national trend corn yield at 177 bushels per acre. Crop Read more…
USDA reported the nation’s hog herd was down 1% on a year over year basis on June 1. Hog producers have not shown much inclination to expand production despite record finished hog prices at farm level. High feed costs have reduced hog production profitability. We calculate potential hog slaughter for Read more…
Feedlots placed fewer feeder cattle than finished cattle marketed last month, but total cattle on feed June 1 still exceeded that of any previous year. We project finished cattle sales in the June/December 2022 period will increase 2% on a year over year basis. A normal seasonal July/December price range Read more…
USDA rated 70% of the US corn crop in good or excellent condition as of 6/19/2022 which is modestly above average. Data for the years 1988 through 2021 would suggest a national average yield of 181 bushels per harvested acre which is equal to the forecast published by USDA in Read more…
This month the USDA forecast the domestic per capita beef supply in the second half of 2022 would total 41 pound, down from 42 pounds a year ago. We have scattered the second half price range for December cattle as a function of per capita beef supply. For 2022 we Read more…
This month USDA forecast the new crop (2022-2023) US soybean carryout at 280 million bushels or six percent of crop year usage. The accompanying scatter studies display the summer/harvest high and low for November soybeans as a function of the new crop US soybean crop year usage ratio as forecast Read more…
Historically, December corn summer-harvest values have been correlated with the US corn carryout as forecast by USDA in early harvest. In the June WASDE report USDA forecast the 2022/2023 (new crop) carryout at 1.4 billion bushels, or 15% of crop year usage excluding feed/residual disappearance. December corn is presently trading Read more…
Weekly data suggest only a minor change in the US winter wheat yield forecast this month. In May USDA forecast winter wheat planted area abandonment will be the largest since 2014. Not much of abandonment can actually be recovered, but USDA could have been a little too pessimistic last month. Read more…
Feeder cattle prices could have considerable upside potential this summer, but only if farmers harvest a crop at least as large and preferably larger than USDA currently forecasts. As a residual claimant feeder cattle values closely follow feed grain values (negative) and finished cattle prices in a positive direction. Since Read more…
On June 3, 2022 September soybeans closed 33 cents premium to November soybeans. Historically, the November – September spread has been a function of the US soybean carryover relative to crop year usage. The drought in South America last winter (Austral summer) created a surge in demand for US soybeans Read more…
September corn is trading about 10 cents per bushel premium to the December contract. Historically, the September/December corn spread has been a function of the US corn carryover. A tight US corn carryout supports the September versus the December corn contract. By the summer of tight years (as in 2022) Read more…
We calculate the US hog inventory on June 1, 2022 at 72 million head, down one million head year over year and six million fewer than the peak inventory (2020) for this cycle in 2020. Hog Balance Mar/May Million head 2020 2021 2022 March 1 75.2 73.9 72.2 Pig crop Read more…