USDA reported cattle on feed May 1,2022 exceeded the year earlier level by 2% based on a 1% year over year decline in placements last month and a 2% reduction in marketings in April 2022. Analysis of historical data suggest placements over the last eight months would project marketings during the Read more…
The November – December corn spread is trading close to zero on a one soybean contract to two corn contracts basis which is at the low end of the range established since the year 2000. Historically the soybean to two corn spread during the summer growing and fall harvest season Read more…
December corn is trading near the expected June/December high assuming the May new crop US corn supply/usage forecast balance published by USDA on May 12. We have included a scatter study displaying the June December high for December corn as a function of the US corn carryout as a % Read more…
November soybeans would have more downside than upside potential based on the USDA’s new crop supply/usage balance published on May 12. The accompanying scatter studies display the summer-fall high and low for the November soybean contract as a function of the ratio of new crop stocks to crop year usage. Read more…
August feeder cattle values have displayed a seasonal tendency to advance from Mid May into the June August period. The summer price seasonal has been reinforced in years in which US cattle inventories on July 1 were less than the previous year’s count, which will likely be the case this Read more…
August hogs are trading near the bottom of the recent trading range. Summer hog futures are correlated with the March lightweight hog inventory as expressed in the USDA’s March hog census. The accompanying scatter studies display the change in the summer high and low for August hogs as a function Read more…
June live cattle could struggle through expiration even though the contract is already trading at a discount to the cash market. The USDA has forecast the average price for cash finished cattle this quarter at $139 which, based on historical experience, would imply a trading range for the June contract Read more…