USDA’s March survey found US farmers intending to plant a record area to soybeans this spring. Working through the 2022/2023 US soybean supply/usage table using, USDA’s trend forecasts provided last month and the March planted area estimate would suggest a modest buildup in US soybean carryout stocks next (2023) summer. Read more
The Spring US hog inventory declined a little more than 2% on a year over year basis according to the latest Hogs and Pigs survey.We estimate April/September finished hog sales will decline 1% from slaughter during the same time a year ago.
Steer prices showed little impact from inflation in the first two decades of the 21st century as general price upward creep was very slow. But the recent surge in inflation has begun to impact cattle prices more robustly. The accompanying scatter studies display deflated Midwestern finished cattle values as a Read more
Feeder cattle placements and finished cattle sales both increased on a year over year basis last month. Cattle on feed March 1 totaled 12.1 million head which exceeded the previous year by just one percent. We forecast cattle marketings over the March/September 2022 period will exceed finished cattle sales in Read more
USDA has increased the forecast for 2022 beef production in recent months, but beef output is still expected to fall short year over year during the last three quarters (April- December) of the forecast period. The more optimistic beef production forecast reflects the larger than normal percentage of the available Read more
USDA has steadily lowered US pork production estimates for 2022 since trend projections were published last spring. US pork production in 2022 is expected to fall short of year earlier level, but most of the decline occurred in the first quarter of the year with April December pork output about Read more
The accompanying scatter studies displays the spring trading range for cash soybeans as a function of the US soybean carryout/crop year usage ratio as forecast by USDA in June. Currently cash soybeans are trading at an elevated level compared to the historic stocks/price function as expressed in the regression line. Read more
This month the USDA forecast corn feed/residual usage at 5.65 billion bushels. The accompanying scatter study displays the historical corn feed per GCAU as a function of farm level corn price. Note that the USDA corn feed/residual estimate is on the high side of historical experience. It is possible the Read more
USDA cut the South American (Brazil. Argentina, Paraguay) this month by 10 million tonnes or 350 million bushels. The crop is now forecast to fall well below the year earlier level. Most of the deficit will be filled by US soybeans although a portion will be filled with US new Read more
US soybean sales increased to 60 plus million tonnes in the period ending March 3, 2022 which is the second fastest pace after last season when Chinese soybeans purchases exceeded the historical pace. China has been buying new crop US soybeans over the last month as crop conditions in South Read more
A sharp increase in production costs could limit US planted acreage this spring, but does advantage soybeans relative to corn because corn cultivation requires more energy. We have constructed a table displaying major farm input costs in Iowa as of 2/22/2022 compared to prices on 12/06/2018. Note that nitrogen, needed Read more
We calculate the March 1,2022 US hog inventory at 73.8 million head, down slightly from a year ago. Our balance table assumes that farmers followed through with the December/February farrowing intentions expressed in the December 2022 survey and that the number of pigs saved per litter will follow the long Read more